000
FXUS63 KMPX 181140
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
640 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some frost concerns tonight, but winds will act against a
  widespread frost

- Breezy and cool through the remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Light rain associated with an elevated area of deformation over
Iowa has spread up to near/just north of I-90 early this
morning. A few light sprinkles could make it as far north as the
Twin Cities metro later this morning, but slightly drier air to
the north will inhibit much further northward progress.
Otherwise this activity will push into western and southwestern
Wisconsin by early afternoon and clear out of our area.
Meanwhile a sheared mid-level upper wave will interact with cold
air advection and a slightly unstable low-level airmass over
western and central Minnesota later this afternoon. CAMs
guidance suggests some scattered shallow convective showers/snow
showers across this area later today which seems reasonable
given the set up. The moist/unstable layer is quite shallow
though, so any precip should be very scattered and light.

A large area of high pressure over Canada will maintain a
cooler-than-average airmass across the region through the end of
the week. This will bring temperatures slightly below freezing
starting tonight, which could lead to some patchy frost
concerns. After coordination with surrounding WFOs and state
climatologists, we`ve decided to start issuing frost/freeze
products a bit earlier than usual due to the warm winter and
resulting earlier growing season. However, winds tonight may be
high enough to prevent much widespread frost, so we will hold
off on any frost advisories for now. This cooler and breezy
pattern will continue through Saturday with highs in the 40s and
lows in the lower 30s. We`ll then rebound to near/slightly above
average temperatures heading into Sunday and the start of the
work week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 631 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

VFR conditions expected throughout this TAF set. Showers over
southern MN are shifting east this morning with the departing
cold front and are no longer expected to impact KMKT or the WI
TAF sites so have omitted mention of any precip. Mixture of
coverages in the mid-to-upper levels today but decks are not
expected to drop below 5 kft, with gradual clearing expected
from midday today onward. Main issue will be strong W winds
developing shortly after sunrise as deep mixing will tap into
winds 40-50kts aloft, allowing winds near 20G30kt at the
surface to be realized this aftn-evening before settling down
tonight.

KMSP...Main issue will be winds from 270-280 direction
increasing to near 20G30kt this afternoon through this evening,
including the aftn push. May make for a small crosswind
component but not to the point where loss of the parallels is
expected.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind WNW 15-25G30-40 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20-25 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind W 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DPH
AVIATION...JPC