Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 220927
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
427 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF A LARGE AREA OF SFC
HIGH PRES OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH NEARLY
MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT...HELPING ENHANCE CAA THIS MRNG. COLDER AIR
OVER RESIDUAL MOISTURE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IS HELPING
PROMOTE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE ATOP THE REGION UNDERNEATH
INCOMING RIDGING ALOFT FROM THE ROCKIES WILL SPELL LOTS OF SUNSHINE
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TDA DUE TO INCRG H5 HEIGHTS. SFC
HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFF TO THE E DURG THE DAY TDA WHILE
THE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVHD THRU TNGT. RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH MEANS LOW TEMPS TUE MRNG WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS
WHAT IS EXPERIENCED THIS MRNG. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
INCRS IN CLOUDS TNGT...MAINLY OVER SWRN MN...IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE TROF ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES. IN ERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA...WHERE THE CENTER OF HIGH PRES WILL STILL HAVE SOME
INFLUENCE...WINDS WILL GO CALM AGAIN WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
IN THE CWFA SO PATCHY FOG LOOKS TO AGAIN DEVELOP OVER WRN WI WWD TO
THE MN STATE LINE. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REVOLVE AROUND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BRINGING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WHEN A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND SPREAD CLOUDS OVER MN/WI. ASIDE FROM THE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CLOUDS...A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
AND LACK OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP MOST LOCATIONS
DRY...BUT CONTINUED WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN...WITH THE ONLY THING JEAPORDIZING A COMPLETELY VFR
TAF PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT. GIVEN NEARLY CALM
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER
40S...EXPECT TO CONTINUE SEEING FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. HAVE
INCLUDED IFR CONDITIONS AT KEAU AND MVFR AT KRNH FOR NOW.
NORTHWEST WINDS BELOW 5 KTS TONIGHT INCREASE TO AROUND 6 KTS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FOR MONDAY...THE GO BACK TO SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

KMSP...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CONCERNS. WINDS BELOW 5 KTS INCREASE
TO AROUND 6 KTS FOR MONDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BACKING TO
SOUTHERLY IS THEN EXPECTED AFTER 00Z TUES.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS S 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 12-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS SSE 7-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...LS





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