Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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293
FXUS63 KMPX 291715
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1215 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Updated to include 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 508 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Quiet weather in the short term with no precipitation expected
between now and Friday night. Winds will be light as well with
temperatures in the mid 70s to near 80 today.

Early morning water vapor imagery together with H500 winds showed a
very weak wind profile across the Upper Midwest, and in fact the 00z
raob from Thursday evening showed winds less than 15 kts in the
lowest 20 kft of the atmosphere. This weak wind profile will
continue as MN/WI sits in between a weak jet to the north and weak
jet to the south, so not anticipating any dynamical forcing
sufficient to produce clouds, let alone any precip. In addition,
forecast soundings so not show instability so shouldn`t have any
potential for convection. For that reason kept the forecast dry
through Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 508 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

The split flow that was alluded to in the previous discussion will
last through the first part of the weekend meaning little if any
chance for showers or thunderstorms between now and then. On Sunday
forecast models show H850 Theta_E advection across western MN, so
continued with some slight chances for thunderstorms during that
timeframe, with chances increasing and spreading eastward Sunday
night.

Upper level ridging will build in on Monday meaning warmer
temperatures for the start of next week. Continued with blended
guidance and have highs approaching 90 degrees for the warmer
locations both Tuesday and Wednesday.

Looking ahead, a zonal jet will develop over the international
border with several weak shortwaves forecast to move over the Upper
Midwest. These are the driving force behind the slight chances for
showers and thunderstorms for most of next week, but timing and
coverage remain uncertain at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Very quiet weather will prevail across the area through the period
as we remain under the influence of a slowly moving area of high
pressure. Winds will be very light through the period, but will
start to become more southeasterly and slightly stronger toward
the tail end.

KMSP...VFR conditions will persist through the period. Wind
direction will fluctuate between NNW and E to some extent through
this evening, but speeds will generally be AOB 5 kt.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Saturday night through Sunday night...VFR. Southeast wind 10 kt or
less.
Monday...VFR. Southeast wind 10 to 15 kt.
Monday night and Tuesday...MVFR possible with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Southeast wind 10 to 20 kt becoming south 5 to
15 kt.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...



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