Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 262340
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
540 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS TIMING OF SNOW EXITING THE SOUTH AND EXPIRATION OF
HEADLINES.

SNOW IS EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST.
LOOKS LIKE A HEAVY BAND OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARNING AREA.
GENERALLY 2 TO 5 INCHES ELSEWHERE IN THE ADVISORY AREA. SOME GUSTY
WINDS WORKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AREA AS MUCH COLDER
AIR DROPS ALONG THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY.  THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW FOR A TIME THIS EVENING TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE AREA.  THAT SHOULD RELAX THROUGH ABOUT 03Z.  ALL IN
ALL...WILL LEAVE A PORTION OF THE ADVISORY/WARNING GO UNTIL 00Z.
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES TUMBLING ALONG AND
EAST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE FRESH SNOW AREAS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL MN.  MOST AREAS BELOW ZERO...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
LOCATIONS AROUND THE METRO AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

THANKSGIVING LOOKS QUITE COLD...PROBABLY ONE OF THE COLDER
THANKSGIVINGS ON RECORD FOR SOME PLACES. IT MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 10
DEGREES IN PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL STREAM ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW PUSHING INTO FAR WEST CENTRAL MN BY
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

PICKING UP THE FORECAST THURSDAY EVENING...WE`LL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE DEPARTING TO
THE EAST. THE PERIOD BEGINS IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE STATE WITH
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE WAS
MADE TO THE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY FROM NORTH DAKOTA...THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
THIS IS A BAND OF PURE WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT GENERATED
PRECIPITATION. THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BAND MAY SEE A WINTRY
MIX FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA
WITH THE BEST LIFT AND SATURATION WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE ALL SNOW. TRULY...THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS AND FN
VECTOR CONVERGENCE STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN LARGELY NORTH OF THE MPX
CWA /ALONG AND NORTH OF MILLE LACS LAKE/. OVERALL...STILL LOOKING
AT 1-3" OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ANY WINTRY MIX THAT IS OBSERVED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL BE
VERY SHORT LIVED AND VERY LIGHT...SO NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH ITS
IMPACTS AT THE MOMENT.

LOOKING AHEAD...WE WILL CONTINUE THE UP AND DOWN TEMPERATURE SWING
ROUTINE WITH QUITE A WARM DAY EXPECTED SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING
SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL ENHANCE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MUCH OF
SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WELL IN TO THE
30S...WITH EXTREME SOUTHERN MN LIKELY TO SEE THE LOWER 40S. WE`LL
GO RIGHT BACK DOWN THROUGH AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE WARMEST EARLY IN
THE MORNING AND EITHER HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY.
SATURATION AND LIFT SATURDAY UNDER THE WAA REGIME LOOK TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE FA...SO STICKING WITH A DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES BY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
YET ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA AS IT WILL AGAIN FEEL MORE
LIKE JANUARY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK HOWEVER...YET ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS NEARBY
AND WILL LIKELY PULL WARM SOUTHERLY AIR NEAR THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM UP TO NEAR MORE SEASONAL VALUES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MAINLY VFR FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE A FEW
EXCEPTIONS AS SOME PATCHY MVFR CLOUDS PASS THROUGH WEST CENTRAL WI
EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO SOME LOW MVFR/IFR AROUND KRWF.
THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE STRONG NW WINDS LIFTING SOME OF THE FRESH
SNOW CAUSING THE LOW CEILINGS. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AFTER 03Z.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY MORNING AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES BY. WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AOA 150.

KMSP...SMALL THREAT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS
EVENING AROUND 022. OTHERWISE...BKN-OVC050-070 SCATTERING OUT
DURING THE EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 12 KNOTS THIS EVENING
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND THEN BECOMING SOUTH 5 KNOTS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...CHC MVFR AND -SN. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
FRI...CHC MVFR AND -SN. WINDS SE 10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 15-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ084-085.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ078-
     092-093.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...RAH







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