Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 120527
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1127 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

.UPDATE...For 06z Aviation discussion below

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

The short term concern is cloud trend`s into the evening and
temperatures into Tuesday.

Still see abundant cloud cover over the cwa. Some drier air
working into the northwest cwa and this will work south and east
during the evening. We should clear over the western half through
this evening and perhaps a bit slower to the far east under low
level caa and cyclonic flow. Winds should decrease overnight as
well and will leave the advisory expire at 6 PM.

High pressure over the cwa into TUesday, but already see some
mid/high level clouds work into the far west overnight and into
most of the MN cwa Tuesday. Some threat of light snow/flurries to
the north as isentropic lift works east into the afternoon.
Mention a slight chance into far northern cwa for this possibility
into the afternoon. Temperatures are expected to be colder, at
least by 10 degrees over the eastern area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Models bring in the next short wave later Tuesday night and
Wednesday. At the moment, models suggest the waa area of
precipitation to the east into Wednesday. This could lead to
1 to 2 inches of light snow accumulation to the east once again.
Depending on cloud ice and saturation, we could see some mixed
precipitation - light freezing drizzle/rain over the far western
fringe of the precipitation area. We may have to expand overall
PoP coverage on Wednesday as well, with the 12z ECMWF developing
lift a bit farther to the southwest, similar to this mornings
wave. We will monitor future model runs.

Following this there remains some indication of more westerly flow
aloft which would help bring in a little warmer Pacific air to the
region. Models do diverge on strength of eastern conus trough and
Pacific wave that moves through the region over the weekend. The
EC is much farther south and allows colder air to drop into the
region. Due to large spread we will stay with the blended guidance
for now, which continue the above normal temperature trend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1128 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Skies will be mostly clear overnight, with the exception of
lingering clouds circa 3KFT in west central WI, and an eventual
increase in mid level clouds around 10kft from the northwest.
Another batch of low clouds with MVFR ceilings looks to move into
the northwest (KAXN) on Tuesday morning, likely shifting into the
other sites Tuesday afternoon. Light snow showers will be possible
as well, primarily at northern sites (KAXN-KSTC) during the day,
then in west central WI (KRNH-KEAU) during the evening.

KMSP...
Mostly clear skies overnight and then a broken mid-level deck
arrives Tuesday morning. The potential for MVFR cigs (and
flurries) is the highest between 20z Tues and 00z Wed.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...MVFR with chc -SN. Wind SE 5 kts mrng, NW aftn 10-15 kts.
Thu...Chc MVFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
Fri...Chc MVFR. Wind WSW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...LS


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