Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 282020
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
320 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID 40S
TO LOW 50S OVER THE REGION WITH DEEP MIXING AND GUSTY WINDS. SOME
RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS MIXING SUBSIDES.

THERE ARE TWO ROUNDS OF RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
SHORT TERM. THE FIRST ONE...TONIGHT...WILL LIFT NORTH FROM IOWA AND
TRACK ACROSS SRN/ERN MN AND WRN WI. HI RES MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...BUT MINOR
CHANGES MAY BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING. INCREASED POPS TO 90S AND 100
ACROSS PARTICULARLY WRN WI LATE TONIGHT AS A REJUVENATION OF THIS
COMPLEX IS EXPECTED WITH THE LLJ FOLLOWING SOME POTENTIAL WEAKENING
EARLY THIS EVENING. REDUCED POPS TO CHC WEST OF THIS FEATURE AND
EAST OF THE SECOND ROUND WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS FAR WRN MN. NOT
SURE MUCH WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO ROUNDS AND MUCH...IF NOT
THE ENTIRE NIGHT MAY BE DRY FROM RWF TO STC.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE SECOND ROUND WILL BE WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY.
MODELS DO SHOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT
WHICH WILL PERSIST AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY. THE
MORNING MAY BE DRY ACROSS ERN MN AND FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE
FIRST ROUND IN WRN WI SO TEMPS MAY BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE
MID/UPPER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS FROM
SWRN MN TO NWRN WI BY AFTERNOON AND MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN BEFORE
SAGGING SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE BEGININNG OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
REMAINS MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND RESIDUAL ACTIVITY IN
ITS WAKE...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. RETAINED LIKELY POPS INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH
POPS TRAILING OFF INTO EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH ABOUT 03Z
SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOLLOW THE SYSTEM WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING THROUGH ABOUT 09Z.

COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 60S MOST AREAS.
THIS IS SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A CLEAR
SKY...SUNDAY MORNING COULD BE COOL ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME PATCHY
FROST OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THIS TO SEE IS TEMPERATURES COOL CLOSE TO FREEZING AFTER 06Z SUN.

MODELS DIVERGE SOME IN OVERALL TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURNING INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. AN OVERALL WARMING TREND IS
STILL ANTICIPATED AS 5OH HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. A WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES
ASHORE AND BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST BY MIDWEEK...WITH THE RESULT
OF THE NORTHERN STREAM JET BEGINNING TO INFLUENCE THE DAKOTAS AND
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SMALL CHANCE POPS
OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN A BAND OF RAIN WILL LIFT NORTH
FROM IOWA AND PUSH ACROSS SRN/ERN MN AND WRN WI OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE DURING THIS RAIN AND FOLLOWING AS
DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH NORTH. MSP...RNH...AND EAU APPEAR
TO BE THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH THE OVERNIGHT
RAIN...WHILE STC...AXN...AND RWF WILL PROBABLY SEE ACTION MORE
ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FRIDAY. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS
HOW LOW THE CIGS WILL GO LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. COULD SEE SOME
IFR LEVELS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH FOR THAT
MENTION IN THE TAFS YET.

KMSP...RAIN APPEARS TO MOVE IN AROUND 05Z...WITH THE MAJORITY OF
IT PASSING TO THE SOUTHEAST. STILL...CIGS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO
MVFR LATE TONIGHT WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON COLD FRONT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NE 10 KTS.
SUN/MON...VFR. WINDS SE 10 KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF



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