Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 220001
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
701 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEAR SKIES WERE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO TOGETHER WITH A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN LED TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY. BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING ALLOWED SURFACE TEMPS TO CLIMB TO NEAR 70 ACROSS
WESTERN MN...BUT LOW CLOUDS LIMITED TEMPS TO THE MID 50S ACROSS
WESTERN WI.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE ID/MT BORDER WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
BRING PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WEST...AND
SHIFTING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WELL ADVERTISED PRECIP IS NOW
FALLING INTO THE TIME FRAME OF THE HIRES MODELS...SO TRIED TO NARROW
UP THE POP WINDOW...BUT INCREASED THE PERCENTAGES AS WELL. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO COULD SEE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD RANGE AROUND 0.20
INCHES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THURSDAY WX AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHOWERS IN EC MN/WC WI WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
AND HOW IT INFLUENCES/SLOWS THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
STORM SYSTEM.

OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS...THE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT AND HOLDING NEAR OR SOUTH OF
BOSTON/MASS. THE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST HAS SLIGHTLY
BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED LEADING TO A SLOWER/STRONGER
SOLUTION. DUE TO THE STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST...IT IS LIKELY
THAT THE UPPER MIDWEST SYSTEM MAY SLOW DOWN FURTHER. CURRENT
WX/POP GRIDS REFLECT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH MAY BE
SLOWED MORE IF CONDS WARRANT.

PAST THURSDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
IN A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH THE
EXTENSION OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRONG
CORRELATION OF ABNORMALLY HIGHER HEIGHTS ABV 50H IS EVIDENT IN THE
LATEST ENSEMBLES OF THE NAEFS. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE ABV NORMAL
TEMPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PAST THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST
PROBABILITY OF SEEING ANOTHER 70 DEGREE HIGH ON BOTH FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY. DEPENDING UPON THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUING...THIS
ABV NORMAL ANOMALY OF THE 20/50H WILL MOVE EAST BY LATE NEXT
WEEK...WITH A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD BY LATE OCTOBER AND EARLY
NOVEMBER. LATEST 6-10/8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM CPC HAS NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS BY EARLY NOVEMBER. EARLY NOVEMBER TEMPS FOR THE UPPER
MIDWEST AVERAGE AROUND 32 DEGREES FOR MORNING LOWS AND HIGHS IN
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SEVERAL CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST AHEAD. THE FIRST IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO WESTERN MN
NEAR DAYBREAK AND LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AT THIS TIME...
LAMP GUIDANCE AND SREF PROBABILITIES POINT MORE TO THE WEST OF
KAXN AND KRWF. HENCE...ONLY CARRIED SCT015-020 FOR THESE SITES IN
THE MORNING. AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD THESE TWO SITES MAY SEE
MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN. A SECOND CONCERN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEAR DAYBREAK BETWEEN
KRWF AND KAXN AND SPREAD EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH KSTC AND THE NORTH
TWIN CITIES METRO BY LATE IN THE MORNING. THIS IS MORE PLAUSIBLE
WITH QUITE A FEW CAMS SHOWING THIS. THEREFORE...VCSH WAS INCLUDED
FOR THE THREE AFOREMENTIONED TERMINALS. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN DURING THE NIGHT WITH GUSTY SE
WINDS FOR WESTERN MN AND ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF SITES ON WEDNESDAY.
FINALLY...SEVERAL OF THE CAMS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS INCREASING TO THE SOUTH OF MN WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS
COULD IMPEDE THE MOISTURE FLOW INTO OUR AREA WITH THE SHOWERS FOR
THE MN/WI TAF SITES BEING MORE OF A SCATTERED NATURE.

KMSP...VFR EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING. SMALL THREAT FOR
A FEW SHOWERS TO PASS NORTH OF THE AIRFIELD WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING ALONG WITH THE THREAT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR WITH MVFR/-SHRA EARLY. WINDS SSE AT 10G20KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 5-10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...RAH






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