932
FNUS73 KMPX 031326
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Lake Venus WMA...MN DNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
826 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 CDT on May 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...For the Lake Venus WMA Burn, temperatures will be
in the mid 50s at ignition and will warm into the low 60s. RH
values will likely remain around 45% but could potentially
approach 35-40% if temperatures overachieve by a few degrees.
Cloud cover increases during the afternoon with a slight chance of
rain showers late this afternoon & evening. Winds will be
generally SW to WSW around 10 mph through mid afternoon. A wind
shift is expected during the late afternoon or evening, which will
result in winds becoming more northerly with speeds still around
10 mph.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of rain showers
                    late in the afternoon.
Temperature.........55 at ignition...Max 60.
RH..................50 percent at ignition...Min 39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 16 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    West winds 14 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good /58000 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /96200 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......3200 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5000 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....West 18 to 22 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P
Sky cover.......MCR PC  MC  CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY
Weather cov.....                CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF
Weather type....                RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............55  57  59  60  60  57  52  49  48  48  46  46
RH..............50  45  42  41  39  49  66  74  80  80  86  86
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..16  15  15  15  15  14  13  12  9   8   8   7
20 FT wind gust.24  23  23  23  23  21  20  17  14  13  13  10
Mix hgt (kft)...3.2 3.6 4.0 4.9 5.0 3.3 2.1 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.7
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  W   W   W
Transp wind spd.21  22  22  22  22  18  16  15  13  10  12  10
Haines index....5   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers.
Temperature.........Min 42.
RH..................Max 96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (29000 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (3000 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 16 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the morning.
Temperature.........Max 59.
RH..................Min 49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 12 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 13 to 14 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (82400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......5100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 17 mph shifting to the northwest
                    around 18 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Dye
Requested by...Matt Mecklenburg
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413082.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/03/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL matt.mecklenburg@state.mn.us