Spot Forecast Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
000
FNUS73 KMPX 091254
FWSMPX
Spot Forecast for Lost valley...MN DNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
754 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on April 09.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...
Clearing skies will allow for warmer temperatures later today.
Current cloud cover will begin to scatter out over the next few
hours. Westerly winds will slowly increase from 5 to 10mph
up to 10 to 15mph by noon. High (80+ percent) morning RH values
will dip into the 40 to 50 percent range by mid afternoon. A
few pop up showers are possible after 2pm CDT, but will be
isolated in coverage and unlikely to impact the fire location.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent) then becoming mostly
sunny (30-40 percent). Chance of sprinkles
early in the afternoon. Slight chance of rain
showers late in the afternoon.
Temperature.........43 at ignition...Max 61.
RH..................86 percent at ignition...Min 49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 9 mph at ignition...otherwise
West winds 9 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /13200 knot-ft/ at ignition.
Max...excellent /104600 knot-ft/ increasing to
excellent (96300 knot-ft) late in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......1200 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 6600 ft
AGL.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 21 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth at ignition...max 4.
TIME (CDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM
Sky cover.......CDY MC MC PC PC CLR MCR PC PC PC PC PC
Weather cov..... CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............43 45 46 49 52 55 58 59 59 60 59 57
RH..............86 79 79 74 66 59 53 49 49 49 51 55
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..9 10 10 10 12 12 13 13 14 13 10 10
20 FT wind gust.14 14 16 17 16 18 18 20 21 18 17 15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 1.5 2.0 2.7 3.5 4.7 5.8 6.6 6.5 5.3 2.2 0.9
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.13 14 15 16 17 18 21 21 21 21 16 13
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers early in the evening, then chance
of sprinkles early in the evening.
Temperature.........Min 40.
RH..................Max 89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 10 mph decreasing to
around 6 mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (31300 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (2600 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). Slight chance of rain
showers in the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 68.
RH..................Min 37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 10 mph shifting to the
west 9 to 10 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2900 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (63100 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to excellent (64500
knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 18 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
$$
Forecaster...WFO MPX
Requested by...Dominic Ruis
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410041.0/MPX
.DELDT 04/09/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL dominic.ruis@state.mn.us