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000
FNUS73 KMPX 091254
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Lost valley...MN DNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
754 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on April 09.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Clearing skies will allow for warmer temperatures later today.
Current cloud cover will begin to scatter out over the next few
hours. Westerly winds will slowly increase from 5 to 10mph
up to 10 to 15mph by noon. High (80+ percent) morning RH values
will dip into the 40 to 50 percent range by mid afternoon. A
few pop up showers are possible after 2pm CDT, but will be
isolated in coverage and unlikely to impact the fire location.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent) then becoming mostly
                    sunny (30-40 percent). Chance of sprinkles
                    early in the afternoon. Slight chance of rain
                    showers late in the afternoon.
Temperature.........43 at ignition...Max 61.
RH..................86 percent at ignition...Min 49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 9 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    West winds 9 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /13200 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /104600 knot-ft/ increasing to
                    excellent (96300 knot-ft) late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......1200 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 6600 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 21 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM
Sky cover.......CDY MC  MC  PC  PC  CLR MCR PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
Weather cov.....                        CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............43  45  46  49  52  55  58  59  59  60  59  57
RH..............86  79  79  74  66  59  53  49  49  49  51  55
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..9   10  10  10  12  12  13  13  14  13  10  10
20 FT wind gust.14  14  16  17  16  18  18  20  21  18  17  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 1.5 2.0 2.7 3.5 4.7 5.8 6.6 6.5 5.3 2.2 0.9
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.13  14  15  16  17  18  21  21  21  21  16  13
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the evening, then chance
                    of sprinkles early in the evening.
Temperature.........Min 40.
RH..................Max 89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 10 mph decreasing to
                    around 6 mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (31300 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (2600 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). Slight chance of rain
                    showers in the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 68.
RH..................Min 37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 10 mph shifting to the
                    west 9 to 10 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2900 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (63100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (64500
                    knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 18 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...WFO MPX
Requested by...Dominic Ruis
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410041.0/MPX
.DELDT 04/09/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL dominic.ruis@state.mn.us