Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FNUS73 KMQT 092220
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Spot Forecast for Black Spruce...USFS
National Weather Service Marquette MI
620 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1800 EDT on May 09.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Clear skies with northeast winds around 9 mph will die down and become
near calm this evening with good RH recovery tonight. Dry and sunny
early on Friday but then a trough moves in from the northwest late in
the day bringing some isolated to scattered showers. Winds starting off
light southwest on Friday will become west at around 6 mph late morning
into the early afternoon and then veer northwest to north late
afternoon/evening behind a trough passage. Any rainfall on Friday
afternoon/evening will be light, probably less than .05 inch. Decent
RH recovery to near 90 percent is expected Friday night before drier
and sunny conditions take hold again on Saturday with building high
pressure.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-5 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........54 at ignition...Min 29.
RH..................45 percent at ignition...Max 95 percent.
Dewpoint............34 decreasing to 28 early in the morning.
33-foot winds.......Winds northeast at 9 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Northeast winds 5 to 9 mph
                    in the evening becoming light.
20-foot winds.......Northeast winds up to 7 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......4600 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 3400-4600
                    ft AGL decreasing to 0-300 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Good (417) at ignition. Min...poor (0.0).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 4.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......25.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........1   0   1   2   1   1   2   1   1   2   1   1
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............54  53  49  45  41  38  36  35  33  32  31  30
Dewpoint........33  32  32  32  31  31  31  31  30  29  29  28
RH..............45  45  50  59  68  75  80  84  89  91  94  95
33 ft wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   SW  SW  SW
33 ft wind spd..9   9   9   6   6   6   1   1   1   2   2   2
20 ft wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   SW  SW  SW
20 ft wind spd..7   7   7   5   5   5   1   1   1   2   2   2
Wind gust.......10  10  10  6   6   6   2   2   2
Mix hgt (kft)...4.6 4.1 3.4 2.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Haines index....3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3
VIndx kt-ft/100.42  37  27  19  8   2   0   0   1   1   1   1
Ceiling (kft)...25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of rain
                    showers late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Max 63.
RH..................Min 28 percent.
Dewpoint............29.
33-foot winds.......Light southwest winds becoming west 5 to 6 mph in the
                    afternoon then northwest to north late.
20-foot winds.......Light southwest winds up to 5 mph becoming west late
                    morning/early afternoon and then northwest to north
                    late afternoon.
Mixing height.......0-1400 ft AGL increasing to 7500-8300 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (0.0-462.0) increasing to
                    excellent (603.0) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.04 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......25 decreasing to 6.1.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........0   2   7   6   4   3   13  22  32  44  56  68
Weather cov.....                                        SCH SCH
Weather type....                                        RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  20  20
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............31  31  34  42  48  53  57  59  61  62  61  61
Dewpoint........29  29  31  31  30  29  29  28  27  28  29  31
RH..............91  94  88  63  50  40  34  30  28  28  30  31
33 ft wind dir..SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  N
33 ft wind spd..2   2   2   3   3   3   5   5   5   6   6   6
20 ft wind dir..SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 ft wind spd..2   2   2   2   2   2   4   4   4   5   5   5
Wind gust.......            5   5   5   8   8   8   10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 0.3 1.4 3.0 4.5 5.4 6.0 6.6 7.5 8.3 8.3
Haines index....3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3
VIndx kt-ft/100.0   0   0   1   6   18  27  36  46  60  74  83
Ceiling (kft)...25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  17  13  9.0 6.1

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers in the evening, then slight chance of
                    rain showers overnight.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Min 41.
RH..................Max 88 percent.
Dewpoint............34 increasing to 39 early in the evening.
33-foot winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming northwest 5 to 6
                    mph overnight.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds up to 5 mph early in the
                    evening becoming light, then becoming northwest
                    up to 5 mph overnight.
Mixing height.......5700-7300 ft AGL decreasing to 700-1700 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Fair to excellent (248.0-732.0) decreasing to
                    poor to fair (64.0-152.0) in the late evening
                    and overnight.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.04 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......4.2 early in the evening.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........73     82     79     77     74     79
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).30     30     30     20     10     10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............59     53     49     45     44     43
Dewpoint........33     38     39     39     40     39
RH..............37     56     68     79     85     87
33 ft wind......N 6    NW 6   W 3    W 6    W 6    NW 6
20 ft wind......N 5    NW 5   W 2    W 5    W 5    NW 5
Wind gust.......10     10     6      6      6      7
Mix hgt (ft)....7300   4000   1700   700    1000   900
Haines index....3      3      2      2      2      2
VIndx kt-ft/100.73     36     15     7      8      9
Ceiling (kft)...4.6    4.2

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Max 61.
RH..................Min 40 percent.
Dewpoint............40 decreasing to 36 late in the afternoon.
33-foot winds.......Northwest winds 6 to 10 mph.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......1000-2600 ft AGL increasing to 8100-8400 ft
                    AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (125.0-599.0) increasing to
                    excellent (1420.0).
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......MISSING.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........74     57     43     30     18     29
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     10     10     10     10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............43     44     50     55     59     60
Dewpoint........39     39     41     41     38     37
RH..............86     83     73     59     45     41
33 ft wind......NW 6   NW 6   NW 9   NW 10  NW 10  NW 10
20 ft wind......NW 5   NW 5   NW 7   NW 8   NW 8   NW 8
Wind gust.......8      8      11     13     13     14
Mix hgt (ft)....1000   1700   3700   5900   7400   8400
Haines index....2      2      3      3      4      4
VIndx kt-ft/100.13     23     60     105    126    143
Ceiling (kft)...

$$
Forecaster...Voss
Requested by...Lisa Gowe
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413646.0/MQT
.DELDT 05/09/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL lisa.gowe@usda.gov