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000
FXUS63 KOAX 181950
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
250 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...


- Freezing temperatures and frost possible Friday, Saturday, and
  Sunday mornings.

- Monday is the next chance for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Today through Sunday Morning...

Frontogenetically forced showers continued to meander across eastern
Nebraska and southwest Iowa this morning, clearing out of our
forecast area by early afternoon. Northwest winds remained breezy
today, with gusts up to 25 to 35 mph.  Temperatures were noticeably
cooler today, only reaching the low 50s by 2 PM this afternoon.

A trough dipping through the north-central CONUS tonight will
continue to usher cooler temperatures into the region. Northwesterly
winds will bring lows down into the low to mid 30s over the forecast
area by Friday morning. Given the sub freezing temperatures,
clearing skies, and very light winds, we opted to issue a Freeze
Warning over northeast Nebraska and parts of western Iowa, with a
Frost Advisory over the southern half of the CWA. Meaning any
unprotected susceptible vegetation could be damaged by the cold
temperatures. Thankfully, by Friday afternoon, highs should rebound
into the low to mid 50s.

North winds will continue to draw cold air into the region this
weekend. Lows will plummet into the upper 20s over the northern
half of the forecast area, with low 30s over the southern half
by Saturday morning. The entire forecast area looks to drop
below freezing Saturday night and Sunday morning. Frost/Freeze
headlines will likely be necessary once again.

Sunday and Beyond...

Southerly low and midlevel flow returns to the Central Plains Sunday
afternoon into early next week, bringing warmer air back into the
region. Highs on Monday will rise back into the 60s with low 70s
possible on Monday.

A low pressure system dropping out of Canada and into the Dakotas
will pull a cold front through the nations` midsection Monday,
bringing us our next chance for showers and a few thunderstorms
Monday through Monday night.

Another shot of cool air will knock temperatures down a few degrees
for a few days, behind the passing cold front.  Thankfully, it
doesn`t look quite as cold as this weekend, with highs generally in
the 60s and lows only dropping into the upper 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Morning showers continue to push east of the TAF sites, along
with MVFR cloud cover. VFR conditions will prevail through the
period with gusty north to northwest winds. Wind speeds will
remain around 15 to 25 kts, with gusts up to 25 to 30 kts.
Winds will decrease after 00Z tonight, dropping under 12 kts
through the overnight hours and eventually backing to the West
after 06Z tonight.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>052.
     Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday for NEZ053-065>068-
     078-088>093.
IA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday for IAZ043-055-056-
     069-080.
     Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday for IAZ079-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG