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000
FXUS64 KOHX 181910
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
210 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

At mid afternoon, skies remained sunny across Middle Tennessee. We
are watching the start of a few cells just west of the Tennessee
River near Savannah. Latest HRRR doesn`t do much with these
initial cells, but that may change if the cells do get
established. Main focus is on well developed storms back over
western Mississippi. We are still looking for this scattered storm
activity to spread northeast into our area later on with peak
coverage between 7 PM and 10 PM. Short range models continue to
show good cape with a narrow axis of 2500 J/kg pivoting into our
southwest counties toward 7 PM. Shear still looks marginal at
best. So, we continue to expect a few instances of localized gusty
winds and marginal sever severe hail with the early evening
scattered storms. Later storms coming in from the west northwest
after 10 PM will have better shear, so gusty winds and maybe a
QLCS spinup tornado cannot be ruled out as the storms approach.
But the late storms will weaken considerably as they push into our
area and especially toward I-65.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

We started off cloudy this morning, but the clouds have been
breaking up and we expect temps to take off into the low to mid
80s this afternoon. As temps warm, the atmosphere will destabilize
with capes rising to 1000-2000 J/kg by late afternoon. This will
set the stage for development of showers and thunderstorms.

The first storms will form late this afternoon and evening as
an impulse moves northeast from the Southern Ms Valley. This
impulse will bring a first round of scattered thunderstorms
starting as early as 3 PM in our western counties, with storms
peaking in coverage and intensity from 7 PM to 10 PM. Later this
evening, another batch of thunderstorms in the form of a
weakening QLCS will come from the west ahead of a cold front.

Each of these rounds of storms has the potential to produce severe
wx, although latest models are not very impressive bringing shear
and instability together. Generally, the greatest thunderstorm
coverage and severe potential will exist west of I-65. It looks
like the first batch will arrive with fairly strong cape but weak
to marginal deep layer shear. A handful of warnings may bee issued
for localized wind gusts over 60 mph and severe hail over 1 inch
in diameter. Later in the evening, the instability wanes, but
shear values will become higher as the QLCS approaches. Damaging
wind gusts of 60 mph appear to be the main concern for late
evening and overnight, but a tornado cannot be ruled out for our
far northwest counties. The incoming band of storms may fall apart
pretty quickly while encountering mediocre lapse rates and more
stable surface air, possibly already worked over by early evening
storms.

Otherwise, a few spots may have some brief street flooding with
any heavy downpours this evening. We don`t expect widespread
flooding problems.

Showers and few leftover storms will move out Friday morning. We
will be left with mostly cloudy and cooler conditions as a north
breeze drops temps back to normal or a little cooler than normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Through the weekend, surface winds will continue to come from the
north as the center of cool high pressure slides southward across
the plains. Zonal flow aloft will bring a series of weak
disturbances, resulting in a good deal of cloud cover through the
weekend and perhaps a few light showers, mainly over our southern
counties. Weekend temps will be a little cooler than normal.
Temperatures will rebound Monday and Tuesday ahead of the next
front and chance for showers late Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

VFR conditions this afternoon with SCT to BKN clouds 030-050.
Scattered thunderstorms develop mainly in western areas after 23z
with a line of thunderstorms pushing into western areas after 05z.
This line of thunderstorms will push east into the overnight weakening
as it does. IFR/LIFR can be expected in any thunderstorms, gusty
winds will also be possible in any thunderstorms. Low cigs will
build in behind the line of thunderstorms and the low cigs will
linger into tomorrow morning. Southerly winds today 6 to 12 knots
becoming more westerly overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      61  72  51  68 /  90  30  10  10
Clarksville    56  69  47  66 /  90  10  10  10
Crossville     60  70  47  64 /  80  60  10  10
Columbia       61  72  49  66 /  80  20  10  20
Cookeville     61  69  49  63 /  90  50  10  10
Jamestown      60  70  46  63 /  90  60  10  10
Lawrenceburg   62  72  51  66 /  90  30  10  20
Murfreesboro   61  72  49  67 /  90  30  10  10
Waverly        56  68  48  65 /  80  10  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Mueller