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000
FXUS61 KOKX 211814
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
214 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the region early this week. A frontal
system impacts the area on Wednesday followed by high pressure
to close out the week. Another frontal system may impact the
area for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
For this update just made a slight adjustment down with temps by
a couple of degrees or so as thick cloud cover has performed
well. Expect mainly cloudy skies through the rest of the
afternoon with a dense mid to high deck. The region remains in
the right rear quadrant of an anticyclonic curved jet stream
which leads to divergence aloft, and with that more clouds for
this afternoon and early this evening. Previous discussion
follows.

Cooler and dry conditions into this afternoon despite clouds,
which will be aloft. A large upper level low over southeast
Canada will result in broad troughing across the eastern US. A
southern stream shortwave along the base of the trough will
develop a wave of low pressure along the southeast coast through
the day. This low will pass far enough south keeping its
moisture field well offshore, however there should be enough
middle and upper level moisture to result in a mostly cloudy
day. With the colder airmass working into the region and the
mostly cloudy skies, expect temperatures today to only be in the
lower half of the 50s, with middle 50s further west for the most
part.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The wave of low pressure pushes east tonight into the Atlantic.
Clouds will decrease from northwest to southeast leading to mostly
clear skies tonight. Another chilly night is in store with lows in
the middle to upper 30s inland and lower 40s closer to the coast. A
usual colder spots across the CWA may see temperatures fall close to
to even below freezing. Will include some patchy frost in the
forecast for these locations.

With surface high pressure over the region Monday and Tuesday,
expect sunny conditions both days with temperatures on Monday in the
the upper 50s and lower 60s. On Tuesday, temperatures will be
slightly warmer, mainly in the lower and middle 60s. Clear skies and
light winds will allow Monday nights lows to fall into the 30s and
40s. Once again, some patchy frost will remain possible early
Tuesday morning well NW of the city and in the LI Pine Barrens.

The pattern starts to change Tuesday night as high pressure moves
east of the region and a cold front approaches from the west. Expect
an increase in cloud cover. There are some model timing issues with
just how quickly the front moves into the area and stuck with a
general model consensus. Will include some slight chance POPS
north and west of NYC for now late Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A mid-level trough swings through the area on Wednesday allowing for
the development and subsequent translation of a surface frontal
system. The center of the low looks to pass north of the area with
the cold front pushing through Wednesday afternoon into the evening.
This will bring a chance of showers to the area. While not included
in the forecast at this time due to low confidence, embedded
thunderstorms can not be ruled out with any convective elements
within the precipitation.

High pressure looks to quickly build in from the west Wednesday
night into Thursday and will remain in place to close out the end of
the week with gradual upper level ridging building in as well.
Models struggle to consistently handle the following energy upstream
of the ridge but all have some pieces of energy approaching the area
from the west into the weekend. This may result in some unsettled
conditions that are handled with a chance for showers.

Temperatures will remain at or below average for the extended period
with highs each day in the middle 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the west through Monday.

VFR. W-SW wind around 10-15 kts this afternoon with gust
between 15-20kt should diminish by late this afternoon/early
evening. Winds will then shift around to the W-NW and remain
around 10 kts through Monday.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may be more occasional through this afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday-Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower with showers. S winds 10-15G20-25kt in the
afternoon/evening, becoming NW at night.

Thursday-Friday: VFR. Gusty NW flow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A few gusts up to 20 kt for some of the far eastern waters along
with the far western ocean and getting close to the Harbor,
otherwise a relatively weak pressure gradient will remain over
the area waters through Tuesday. This will result in Sub- SCA
conditions. The pressure gradient tightens with slowly
increasing winds Tuesday night into Wednesday, increasing the
likelihood of SCA conditions across all ocean waters during this
period. Seas on a southerly flow build up to around 5 ft on
Wednesday. A cold front then passes through, and SCA conds will
still be likely on the ocean Wednesday night. Offshore winds
diminish on Thursday along with subsiding seas. Sub- advisory
conditions are therefore anticipated by the end of the day.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$