Text Products for AFD Issued by OUN

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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FXUS64 KOUN 160956
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
456 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 212 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A Pacific front will continue to move through central Oklahoma
around sunrise. There is a low chance that storms will be ongoing
as this front moves eastward, given that the main large scale
ascent will be north of the Kansas/Oklahoma border. Gusty westerly
winds are expected behind the boundary throughout most of
Tuesday. Dry air will contribute to RH values in the low to mid
teens, especially out in western Oklahoma. In addition, the fuels
across portions of western and northwestern Oklahoma are in the
70-89th percentile. A Red Flag Warning has already been issued for
far northwestern Oklahoma beginning mid morning and continuing
until after sunset.

Winds will weaken overnight and shift towards the north. Clear
skies will help overnight lows get into the upper 40s out west,
and in the low to mid 50s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 212 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Our attention turns to Thursday afternoon where there is a low
risk for severe storms as a stronger cold front moves through the
area. Medium range models are in good agreement with the timing
and evolution of the front. Rich moisture will overspread southern
Oklahoma ahead of the front, which will help aid in storm
development. There will be sufficient instability for large hail
and there could be some damaging winds, especially given the
inverted V soundings from the GFS.

Much colder air will follow this frontal boundary and will
continue through the weekend. Highs are expected to get into the
upper 50s to low 60s, and lows will be in the 40s. A shortwave is
expected to move through by Saturday, bringing rain chances to the
southern half of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 453 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A few locations could see MVFR ceilings this morning. These
ceilings will improve by mid morning as a pacific front moves
through the area, bringing drier air with it. Winds will continue
to shift to westerly behind the aforementioned front. Winds are
expected to be gusty until the afternoon, where they will
gradually weaken and shift to northerly overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  81  55  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         83  51  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  85  53  87  64 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           83  49  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     82  51  83  60 /  10   0   0  10
Durant OK         85  63  86  67 /  40   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for OKZ004-005-009-010.

TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...13
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
