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000
FXUS64 KOUN 231209
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
709 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

A cold front will enter Northwest Oklahoma later this morning and
advance to the southeast today. Cold air advection behind the
front will be limited and should be offset by solar insolation. In
other words, temperatures will still rise into the 70s deg F
north of the cold front. Ahead of the front, temperatures will
rise into the 80s deg F with a veered low-level flow and an
attendant thermal ridge.

By this evening, isolated thunderstorms will likely develop in
the Texas panhandle in proximity of the cold front. These
thunderstorms would move to the southeast into western north Texas
this evening before dissipating with the loss of daytime heating.
Effective bulk shear of ~40 knots and MLCAPE of ~1500 J/kg will
support supercells with the threat for large hail. Large downdraft
CAPE (~1000 J/kg) will also support a threat for damaging wind
gusts. Additional showers and thunderstorms may develop farther
northeast along the cold front, southeast of I-44. These are not
expected to become severe and the probability is low (~20%).

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Wednesday: The cold front that moved through Tuesday will stall
in close proximity to the Red River. Isentropic ascent/warm air
advection along and north of the front will result showers and
perhaps thunderstorms along with abundant cloud cover. There is
sufficient elevated instability that any intense cores may produce
hail. Limited insolation will result in a cool afternoon with
high temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s deg F north
of the front. South of the front, temperatures will be in upper
70s to low 80s deg F. The front will begin to lift back to the
north as a warm front Wednesday night as winds veer back to the
south with a continued chance for showers and thunderstorms as
isentropic ascent increases in tandem with a strengthening low-
level jet.

Thursday into Friday Morning: As the warm front lifts to the
north Thursday, there will be the potential for showers and
thunderstorms at least during the morning. There remains
uncertainty on how far north the warm front will retreat during
the day as ongoing convection may limit its advancement. If the
warm front stays south of the Oklahoma/Kansas border, there is the
potential for continued thunderstorm development along and north
of the warm front Thursday afternoon in north central Oklahoma.

A shortwave trough is forecast to lift into the Plains Thursday
afternoon with increasing synoptic-scale ascent. At the surface, a
dryline will sharpen across the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles.
There is a reasonable chance that at least isolated severe
thunderstorms will develop across the Texas and Oklahoma
panhandles ahead of the dryline late afternoon/early evening as
the trough approaches from the west. These thunderstorms would
move eastward into western Oklahoma late evening (with the highest
probability across northwest Oklahoma). Shear and instability
will be sufficient for supercells with all hazards (large hail,
damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes) possible. In addition,
thunderstorms may develop during the overnight hours as the
dryline/Pacific front accelerates eastward in tandem with
synoptic-scale ascent/the trough. As a result, severe weather
will remain possible through Friday morning across the entire area
(moving from west to east with time as the trough lifts by).

Friday Afternoon: There is low chance thunderstorms may redevelop
Friday afternoon along the dryline that will be near or east of
I-35. However, with the trough and attendant synoptic- scale
ascent lifting will to the northeast, the probability for this is
low. The more likely scenario is dry conditions late Friday
afternoon into Friday evening as the Southern Plains will be
between troughs. To the west of the dryline, at least near
critical fire weather conditions will likely develop across
northwest into west central Oklahoma (with the potential for even
critical fire weather conditions).

Saturday: Saturday has the potential for a significant severe
weather event across the entire area. Low-level moisture will
quickly advance back to the northwest as a negatively-tilted
trough lifts into the Southern Plains. At the surface, a dryline
will sharpen near or just east of the Oklahoma/Texas state line as
a surface low deepens in response to the approaching trough.

The magnitude of the severe weather risk will depend on the
timing of the trough`s ejection and the amount of early morning
convection (which are the two biggest uncertainties with this
event). An earlier timing of the trough and/or early morning
convection would likely temper the magnitude of severe weather.
However, if the morning convection is limited and the timing of
the wave coincides with peak heating, a significant severe weather
event is more likely. In addition, heavy rainfall/flooding may
become an issue by Saturday--especially if there are multiple
rounds of storms.

Sunday: Remnant showers and thunderstorms may occur Sunday
morning across southeast Oklahoma before the system departs. A
slightly drier and cooler air mass is expected in the system`s
wake.

Mahale

 &&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1007 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR conditions with mid and high clouds. Low VFR clouds will be
possible in KDUA. Breezy southerly winds will continue overnight.
Winds will shift towards the N and NE as a cold front moves
across portions of the area Tuesday. Some storms could develop
late Tuesday afternoon/evening but chances too low for mention in
TAFs at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 708 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

The non-convective low-level wind shear this morning will hang on
for a couple of more hours before the magnitude decreases. A cold
front will move from northwest to southeast across the area
tomorrow with winds shifting from south/southwesterly to
north/northeasterly. Scattered showers and storms are expected to
develop late tonight with MVFR (and locally IFR) conditions
associated with the showers and storms. Away from the showers and
storms, some MVFR ceilings will also move into southeast Oklahoma
including KDUA early Wednesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  81  56  68  60 /  10  30  70  60
Hobart OK         84  57  71  59 /  10  30  40  40
Wichita Falls TX  84  61  77  65 /  10  20  30  30
Gage OK           78  49  66  52 /   0  30  40  30
Ponca City OK     78  52  70  55 /  10  10  60  80
Durant OK         78  62  77  65 /   0  20  30  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...26