865
FXUS63 KPAH 141128
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
628 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms continue today; can`t rule out a severe
  storm this afternoon.

- Some lingering showers continue tonight into Wednesday, and
  then another system spreads additional showers and storms into
  the region Thursday through Friday.

- Uncertainty exists regarding precip chances this weekend, but it`s
  quite possible it ends up completely dry.

- Temperatures will start off near to slightly below normal the
  next couple of days, then warm above normal this weekend as
  highs reach the mid 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

A surface low is currently located over north central Arkansas with
convection located out ahead of it across southeast Missouri. This
activity will pivot northeast across the rest of the region through
early-mid morning. Weak instability should largely hinder the severe
concern, but training of convection may lead to a localized flash
flooding concern. Some areas have already received 1-2" and could
see some additional 2-3" swaths occurring through sunrise.

An upper low over western Missouri will slowly churn eastward today,
providing forcing for additional convection to occur this afternoon.
Stronger wind fields aloft will depart to the southeast, but 25 kts
of 0-6 km shear may still be realized especially across the east
half of the area. This combined with 1000-1500 j/kg of MLCAPE and
decent mid-level lapse rates of 6.5 C/km may support a few strong to
severe storms developing. SPC has the east half of the area in a Day
1 marginal which seems reasonable. More likely to see small hail or
gusty winds with a few of the stronger storms, but can`t rule out
something a bit perkier. Also may end up with a few cold air funnel
sightings.

The convection should decrease fairly quickly this evening with loss
of daytime heating. The cyclonic flow around the upper low may lead
to additional isolated showers on Wednesday, mainly east of the
Mississippi River.

We won`t see much break in between systems as mid-level energy
ejects across the Plains and into the Ozarks by Wednesday night.
This may lead to a decaying MCS of sorts that could potentially
reach our western counties by 12z Thursday. Additional showers and
storms are then expected to develop Thursday afternoon and evening,
and continue off and on through Friday night. Can`t rule out a few
strong storms on Thursday (if the 00z NAM is correct it`d be more
concerning). 0-6km shear looks to be at least 30-35 kts and somewhat
decent instability is expected to develop by afternoon. SPC
currently has portions of our area in a marginal risk for severe
which is hard to argue against at this time.

Ensemble members are all over the place for this weekend, but the
majority seem to favor a mainly dry period as the trough responsible
for the late week rains shifts southeast of our cwa. Of course, the
GFS offers up a much slower evolution of the trough that actually
ends up with another upper low moving across our cwa on Saturday and
keeping us unsettled. For now see no reason to stray from the low
PoPs the NBM has in, but would tend to lean toward a drier weekend
being realized.

Our unsettled weather pattern could continue through much of next
week, but ensemble data is all over the place. There is higher
confidence in above normal temperatures than day to day precip
chances at this point. Looks like highs in the 80s may be on the
table much of the week. Wouldn`t be surprised to see one or two days
close to 90. It also may be quite muggy with dewpoints well into the
60s and possibly exceeding 70 at times.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Scattered to numerous SHRA will continue through the day. TSRA
most likely across west Kentucky and southwest Indiana this
morning, then across the entire region this afternoon into early
evening. Coverage should dwindle quickly after sunset. Cigs are
a bit variable, but should predominately be in the IFR or low
MVFR range this morning before some gradual improvement this
afternoon. Guidance hints at cigs lifting to VFR levels at least
across the south half of the area later this afternoon and
evening before tanking again tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP