082
FXUS63 KPAH 010440
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1140 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A trend of above normal temperatures sets in, peaking
  Wednesday and Thursday, with highs into the upper 80s. For
  most locations, that`ll be just shy of records near 90 to
  begin the month of May.

- Daily rain chances resume Thursday. They`ll peak Friday and
  again late this weekend into early next week. Heavy rain will
  be the primary hazard from any storms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Updated Aviation discussion for the 06z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

High pressure provides clear skies and helps draw in drier dew
points that bottom into the 50s overnight. As the high shifts
eastward, southerly return flow quickly reverses course for dew
points, returning them into the lower 60s along with our warmup.
Near record highs in the upper 80s are forecast Wednesday and
Thursday, and here is the record information for our climo sites
both days:

     May1      May2    Norm-Hi   Fcst-Hi Wed/Thu
PAH  90/1951   90/2012    75        87/89
EVV  90/1951   91/1959    73        83/87
CGI  87/2012   89/2012    74        86/87
POF  93/1901   91/1952    74        86/87
MDH  91/1901   91/1901    73        83/87

There may be a glancing blow/low pops for warm advection
showers for portions of the area late tonight-early tmrw, and
again tmrw pm/evening with diurnal destabilization. Otherwise,
it will largely be dry until broader/synoptic scale pops move in
from the west beginning Thursday. These pops will peak Friday
before diminishing early this weekend, mirroring their parent
system`s lift and spreading and ultimately diminishing in
similarly tracking west-to-east fashion. Heavy rain will be the
primary hazard as WPC paints a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall accompanying that system`s pass.

A relative early weekend pops pause is quickly followed by
continued daily chances Saturday night thru Monday. The parent
synoptic features of these chances remain north and west of our
area for their duration, so at this writing, it looks more like
your routine/daily storm chances with locally heavy rain hazard
vs anything widespread severe variety. There is no discernible
air mass change so the warm temp regime continues with mostly
80s for highs this weekend thru early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

For the 06z TAFs, forecast confidence is high that the region
will see VFR conditions with increasing upper-level cirrus
cloud coverage from 06-18z, with SCT diurnal CU developing after
15z. Winds will be light from the S to SSE at 4-6 kts or less,
becoming SW at AOA 7 kts after 15z.

Forecast confidence decreases for the 01/18z to 02/06z period as
as a frontal boundary sags southward into the region from the N
and NW. This may kick off isolated -SHRA or -TSRA during the
heat of the afternoon into the early evening hours, but
confidence was too low to include at this time. Winds will
become light and variable after 02/00z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DWS