053
FXUS61 KPBZ 011749
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
149 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The remainder of the work week will be dry and warm as
temperatures will continue to be above normal. A slight cool
down is expected this weekend with returning rain chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Warm and mostly sunny today under building high pressure.
- Warm and dry overnight.

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High pressure will continue to keep warm and dry weather in
store today with a weak upper ridge building overhead.
Temperatures will climb to around 80 degrees under mostly sunny
skies and light winds. The NBM gives a good probability of 60%
to 80% across the forecast area for this potential. A weak front
pushes into the area from the northwest overnight but only
brings a wind shift as convection will struggle to develop given
the lack of moisture and ascent beneath the upper ridge. Despite
the mentioned front, cloud cover will be minimal with warmer
than normal low temperatures tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather and above-normal temperatures continue Thursday
  and through most of Friday.

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Dry weather and above-normal temperatures continue Thursday and
once again through much of Friday. Temperatures settle into the
50s by early Thursday morning before climbing back into the 80s
(upper 70s north of I-80) Thursday afternoon. In fact, even
better NBM probabilities are in place for Thursday and Friday
high temperatures. Looking 80% to 99% probabilities of 80
degree highs or greater. Friday looks like the warmest day of
the week. High pressure will continue to support above- normal
temps and dry conditions Thursday night with lows ranging from
upper 50s south of I-80 to low 50s farther north.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- An unsettled pattern returns Friday evening into Friday night
  through the weekend with above-average temperatures and
  periods of showers and thunderstorms favored.

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Ensembles continue to indicate a more active weather pattern
setting up into the weekend as an upper level trough pushes
eastward over the Great Lakes, shunting the ridge axis
southeastward and bringing a deep-layer southwest flow to the
region. Periods of showers and thunderstorms can be expected
Friday afternoon through the weekend, though exact timing and
intensity of any given round of convection remains uncertain due
to the complex nature of the more active pattern. The latest
ensemble runs continue to paint Friday night and Saturday as the
most likely periods to see widespread shower and thunderstorm
activity, though there also continues to be some signal for
scattered convection lingering through Sunday and even into
early next week.

At this time, a widespread severe weather threat appears
unlikely due to a lack of notable instability or bulk shear. The
same can be said about the threat for a widespread flood
threat, as ensemble probabilities for widespread rainfall
amounts of an inch or greater remain low (30% or less) across
the area during any given 24-hour period this weekend. That
said, heavier rain rates in thunderstorms could result in a
localized minor flood threat for low-lying and urban areas. For
this reason, the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted a
Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall across eastern OH, western
PA, and northern WV on Saturday. Stay tuned for more details on
timing and impacts as we get closer to the weekend.

Temperatures Saturday through Tuesday also trend above normal,
but remain in the 70s due to thickening cloud cover and an
increasing coverage of showers and storms. The overall synoptic
pattern certainly would suggest a busy stretch of days starting
this weekend into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A VFR forecast remains over the next 24 hours. Under high
pressure, patches of mid and upper clouds will be the rule for
the most part. Model cumulus rules do not show much potential
for convective cloud development. Also, with much drier
dewpoints tonight, fog and stratus will not be a concern.
NBM/HREF probabilities of even 5 mile visibility remain below 30
percent areawide.

Southwest wind around 10 knots, with a few gusts to 20, will
diminish tonight and become more variable at 5 knots or less.

.Outlook...
VFR conditions are expected to continue through Thursday night
under high pressure. The next chance for restrictions comes late
Friday into early Saturday with passing low pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Cermak/Shallenberger
NEAR TERM...Shallenberger
SHORT TERM...Cermak/Shallenberger
LONG TERM...Cermak
AVIATION...CL