554
FNUS75 KPSR 120126
FWSPSR

Spot Forecast for Horse Fire...USFS
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
626 PM MST Sat May 11 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1900 MST on May 11.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Of immediate note, there is an outflow boundary capable of
generating 20-25 mph wind gusts moving down from the north. The
outflow is forecast to reach the Horse Fire around 1900MST at its
current pace. Wind directions may also suddenly shift from W-SW
to N-NE with the outflow passage. Half an hour to an hour after
the outflow, winds may back toward the W-NW for a few hours before
typical northerly downvalley winds take over and prevail through
the remainder of the night. Rain is not expected at the site of
the fire. Sunday, typical diurnal and valley winds will prevail
with S-SW wind speeds up to 10-15 mph and gusts up to 20 mph in
the afternoon. Very similar winds are expected Monday. Minimum RHs
will fall below 15% each afternoon, primarily between
1100-2100MST, with overnight recoveries between 35-45%. Afternoon
temperatures will be above normal the next couple of days, with
highs in the low to mid 90s.


Note...Additional Fire Weather Forecast information can be found
in the Area Forecast Discussion. See product PHXAFDPSR.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
CWR.................1 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 58.
Max humidity........40-45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
CWR.................1 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 93.
Min humidity........8-13 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 6 to 11 mph shifting to the
                    southwest in the afternoon.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 62.
Max humidity........34-39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 8 mph shifting to the
                    southeast 5 to 7 mph overnight.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 95.
Min humidity........8-13 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 7 mph int he morning
                    shifting to the southwest 7 to 12 mph in the
                    afternoon with gusts to 15 to 20 mph.

$$
Forecaster...SB
Requested by...Kate Johnson
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2413801.0/PSR
.DELDT 05/11/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kate_johnson@firenet.gov