Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
118 FXUS65 KPUB 280436 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1036 PM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Moderate to heavy snow continues across Teller and northern El Paso counties, and the Continental Divide through this evening - Window for severe thunderstorms is rapidly closing for the far southeast plains where higher stability behind the front has hindered more robust thunderstorm development this afternoon and humidity may stay too high for critical fire weather conditions to materialize - Another round of rain and snow showers expected for Sunday before drying out for next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 222 PM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Upper low over CO will continue to lift northeastward into NE tonight. With the cold core overhead late this afternoon and evening, it still looking at a variety of hazards will impact southern CO. These will range from heavy snow across the central mountains and Pikes Peak region with slushy wet accumulations possible for the Palmer Divide, to thunderstorms with some hail potential for the plains. As for details, wrapped up upper low will keep a broad band of rain and snow showers going beneath the TROWAL across the Pikes Peak region and central mountains. Other bands of showers and embedded thunderstorms will spiral around the southern periphery of the upper low across the southeast plains. Moderate to heavy snow will continue across the Pikes Peak region through this evening before decreasing after midnight. While road surfaces have stayed around freezing and primarily wet across the high country, impacts from heavy wet snow on visibility will continue into this evening and could still cause slick roads as road temperatures drop below freezing this evening. All highlights come down around 06z-12z which still looks on target and may be able to be taken down sooner for the southwest mountains. Meanwhile, the cold front has pushed farther south across the plains and has been slower to lift northward leaving Baca county under higher humidity and much of the plains under greater stability. Red Flag conditions have not materialized across Baca county and will take the Red Flag Warning down with the afternoon package. SPC meso analysis keeps the best instability across Baca county where a few CAMS have strong cells moving across the area north of the frontal boundary through 3-4 PM. SSCRAM runs have been backing off on any severe or brief tornado risk and with the window rapidly closing towards 3 PM. While we could see a strong storm or two near the KS border in Baca and Prowers and eastern Kiowa counties late this afternoon, think the main risk will be hail to near 1 inch in diameter and some gusty winds to near 60 mph. Most of the precipitation will wind down after midnight. It will remain cool and unsettled for Sunday as the upper low pulls away and some trailing energy in northwest flow moves in from the west. This will spark another round of rain/snow showers in and near the mountains, though coverage and intensities will be more limited than today`s. Otherwise, temperatures will remain below seasonal normals. -KT && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 222 PM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024 It will dry out and warm up for the early part of the week. Westerly flow increases as the next system drops in from the northwest on Tuesday. This may ramp up fire weather concerns again for the San Luis Valley and southern portions of the southeast plains depending on the timing of the cold front which drops through the plains in the late afternoon. Will hold off on any fire highlights this far out, but it will bear watching. Eventually this system will push eastward across WY and northern CO though timing varies between the long range models. This would spread rain and snow showers back into the central mountains and the potential for thunderstorms across portions of the southeast plains along and north of the frontal boundary. Cooler temperatures then follow for Thursday with growing uncertainties farther out depending on the timing and track of the next system which varies significantly with various model runs. -KT && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1030 PM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Unsettled moist northwest flow will be over the region during this forecast period. There will be a chance of passing showers at times and we may see a period of MVFR cloudiness especially later tonight into tomorrow morning at each of the taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Sfc winds will generally be light through the period. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Sunday for COZ058-060-081- 082. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Sunday for COZ059-061- 063-066-068-073-076. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for COZ084. && $$ SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...KT AVIATION...HODANISH