264
FXUS61 KRLX 141832
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
232 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers give way to more widespread rain and embedded
thunderstorms overnight into Wednesday. Mainly dry Thursday,
then unsettled to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 120 PM Tuesday...

Subsidence in the wake of a shortwave departing to the northeast has
yielded only isolated additional showery activity late morning into
early this afternoon. Lower level cloudiness left in the wake of
morning precipitation has also impeded insolation with temperatures
running a few degrees under most guidance. There is some clearing of
clouds evident in visual imagery across the TN Valley and should see
at least some better surface heating moving up into the Southern
Coalfields prior to maximum diurnal heating. This may yield an
uptick in showers, with perhaps a few rumbles of thunder heading
into this afternoon.

Otherwise, the primary driver of precipitation late this afternoon
into Wednesday will be a rather weak northern stream low currently
located over the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers. Will
see precipitation chances ramp up as shortwaves rotating around the
associated upper low along with broad scale ascent associated with
the left front quadrant of a 100KT H250 jet nosing up the TN Valley.
Through then overnight any showers or thunderstorms should be moving
along decently. Risk for severe storms through the late afternoon
will be rather limited by the significant cloud cover squashing
surface heating, but couldn`t rule out a stronger storm or two where
clouds can break given around 35KTs of deep layer shear - primarily
across E KY into SW VA.

During the day Wednesday, as the upper low opens into a weak wave
and the surface low drifts overhead, could see more of a concern for
high water issues with very slow moving and repetitive precipitation
cores in the presence of warm cloud depths of around 9000 ft and
precipitable water values approaching 1.5 inches. With recent
relatively dry conditions and the greenup now complete, any issues
would likely be very isolated - somewhat more likely if these
repetitive cores happen to cross an area of especially poor drainage
or built up area. Risk for severe weather will be severely limited
by weak flow through the column.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 232 PM Tuesday...

Showers and any lingering convection come to an end early
Thursday morning as an upper level trough and adjoined surface
low shift off the eastern seaboard. Shortwave ridging helps to
ease potential for activity for Thursday afternoon, but
diurnally driven convection looks to sprout along the higher
terrain during peak heating hours. A brief moment of reprieve
looks plausible Thursday night ahead of another upper trough
aiming for the Ohio Valley for the end of the work week.

After a cool start to the morning Thursday within lingering
precipitation, temperatures are progged to recover into the
upper 70s along the Ohio River Valley in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 232 PM Tuesday...

Unsettled weather slithers back into the forecast for the end of
the work week as a negatively titled trough charges through the
country. Showers overtake the area from west to east throughout
the day Friday, with coverage ramping up by the evening and
overnight hours. Rain, and embedded thunderstorms, then
stretches into the weekend as a surface low slowly meanders over
the Ohio Valley in the midst of its parent trough stationed
over the Central Appalachians.

There still remains a wide array of model solutions for how
activity pans out for Sunday onward, so opted not to stray too
far from central guidance for the time being. This portrays a
slightly drier day on Sunday as the trough sluggishly shifts
eastward, but keeps slight chance/chance POPs along the spine of
the Appalachians for the afternoon. Once this features departs
further eastward, there will be a brief dry spell for Monday
morning, but diurnally driven convection looks feasible within
an afternoon cumulus field that develops. After a brief cool
down over the weekend, temperatures recover back into the
70s/80s for the end of the weekend into the start of next week.

May have to become vigilant for hydro issues as the weekend
wears on, especially if heavier bursts of rain track over areas
that receive an adequate amount of accumulation from preceding
activity.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 120 PM Tuesday...

Overcast ceilings 030-040 this afternoon with a few patches of MVFR
with patchy showers deteriorate overnight as more widespread
precipitation enters the region. Initially, will have enough
boundary layer flow to keep things somewhat stirred up through
around 05Z, but weakening flow through the remainder of the
overnight should allow a completely saturated column to begin to
generate IFR ceilings and perhaps some fog heading into morning. For
now, will code primarily IFR, but at least spotty LIFR will also be
possible, especially where showers are more persistent.

Should see a brief break in precipitation Wednesday morning before
showers begin to fill in after this TAF period Wednesday afternoon.

Winds generally light, favoring a southeast direction, except 6-8KT
with some gusts into the teens in downslope near BKW this
afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog could be more dense than advertised
overnight.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
Scattered IFR visibilities and ceilings are possible in heavier
rain showers Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/MEK
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...JP