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000
FXUS61 KRLX 122249
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
649 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showery and breezy through tonight. Heavy rain from yesterday
continues to yield high water issues into Friday. Quiet for
Saturday into Sunday with storms possible Sunday evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 645 PM Friday...

A reinforcing front brings a strong wind shift, evident on
radar and surface observations, entering our area from the
northwest early this evening. Wind advisories remains in effect
for the lowlands until 7 AM Saturday morning, and for the
higher elevations through 6 PM Saturday.

As of 125 PM Friday...

Shortwave gradually moving across the south is bringing another
slug of rain back into these areas, in addition with ongoing
shower activity as we remain under influence of the upper
trough. Gusty winds across the area today owing to tight
pressure gradient and CAA across the area. Issued wind advisory
earlier for locations expected to receive the higher gusts,
mainly as an impact based advisory due to saturated soils and
weakened trees from previous storms. Otherwise, any qpf from
showers (or isolated storms today) should be relatively light,
and could see periods of graupel with more robust showers or
thunderstorms due to cold air aloft. Precipitation will
transition to mainly light upslope later tonight into early
Saturday across the mountains, before tapering off at the low
moves farther away from the area, high pressure starts to build
in, and flow becomes less favorable.

Saturday should overall be a nice day, with plenty of sunshine,
and temperatures in the 60s across much of the lowlands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 226 PM Friday...

The second half of the weekend remains dry as an upper level
ridge slides through the Ohio Valley, attributing to rising
temperatures in the process. Afternoon highs on Sunday are
progged to return above their climatological norm, with the
lowlands climbing into the upper 70s while our mountain zones
reaching the 60s to low 70s. A warm front slips through the
region during this time, and is anticipated to drape across our
northern forecast periphery late Sunday night into the start of
the new work week. This will set forth a chance for rain and
embedded thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon, with severe weather
being more contained along the front itself across southeast
Ohio and the northern extent of West Virginia. Activity looks to
be diurnally driven, dwindling in coverage after sunset Sunday
night.

Similar temperature conditions are anticipated for Monday
afternoon as the frontal boundary remains nestled in close
quarters to the forecast area. The boundary may slide a bit
southward, which plants shower and storm coverage further south
in the coalfields during peak heating hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 226 PM Friday...

An evolving disturbance over the Four Corner Region is progged
to promote the return of unsettled weather beginning on Tuesday
into midweek. The low will emerge off the lee of the Rockies on
Tuesday and will congeal with the stationary front still
floating about in the Appalachia area. This will invigorate
showers and storms in earnest by Wednesday into Thursday as a
trailing cold front sweeps through the country. While
pinpointing severe weather is still too far out within this
forecast cycle, SPC has been advertising Day 4 and 5 potential
for severe across the Central Plains as this front encroaches,
so it will certainly an area to monitor heading into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 641 PM Friday...

Widespread MVFR ceilings about 2,000 feet are evident on METARs
across the region at the beginning of the period. Brief periods
of IFR visibility are possible in showers. Ceilings should
improve to VFR from west to east this evening into the
overnight, outside showers and storms that can move over the
area.

Strong west southwest winds 10 to 15 knots gusting to around 30
knots will shift from the northwest behind a reinforcing front
crossing the area this evening. Areas where the atmosphere manage to
decouple, expect lower winds at less than 10 knots, and LLWS
developing under 30 to 40 knots winds at 2,000 feet. LLWS will
persist through 12Z before diminishing. Winds will pick up once
again out of the northwest with sustained winds around 12 knots
and gusts up to around 18 knots for the end of the TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improvement to VFR overnight
may vary from forecast.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are forecast.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for WVZ007>011-013>020-
     026>032-039-040-515>522-524-525.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for WVZ523-526.
OH...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     084-085.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL/MEK
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...ARJ