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000
FNUS71 KRNK 191044
FWSRNK

Spot Forecast for Blue Panther...USFS
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
644 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EDT on April 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
More clouds today with scattered showers/few storms. Noticeable increase
in RH as a front tracks into and through the area. A few showers are
possible between 10am-1pm, then again later this afternoon/early evening.
A few cloud to ground lightning strikes possible as well mainly
with the activity this afternoon. Front moves across this evening,
with south winds turning west. Poor vent rates today into tonight.

Dry weather expected Saturday with better mixing, lower RH and more sun.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers through the day. Chance of
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent increasing to 30 percent late in
                    the morning increasing to 50 percent late in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......2900 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southeast 3 to 6 mph shifting to the south
                    around 3 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1400 knot-ft).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................4 to 11.
Haines Index........3 to 6 or very low to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........63  76  83  93  97  99  79  55  70  82  89
Weather cov.....        SCH CHC CHC SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                            CHC CHC CHC SCH
CWR.............10  10  20  30  30  20  40  40  40  50  40
Temp............54  55  57  59  60  61  62  66  67  68  68
RH..............71  73  73  72  71  68  68  60  60  55  57
20 FT wind dir..SE  S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..3   4   5   5   6   6   7   8   7   6   6
20 FT wind gust.4   6   6   7   7   10  10  11  10  11  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.9 1.1 1.6 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.0
Mixng wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S
Mixng wind spd..3   5   6   6   6   5   5   3   3   3   3
LVORI...........4   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   3   3
ADI.............4   5   7   10  10  9   11  11  10  10  9
Haines index....6   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   3   3   3
VRate mph-ft/1K.2   4   6   9   10  9   9   10  9   9   7

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly to Mostly cloudy (40-80 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
CWR (0.01 in).......40 percent decreasing to 10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 47.
Max humidity........88 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 6 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 5 to 8 mph in the late evening and
                    overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms early in the evening. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    early in the evening.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southwest 2 to 5 mph shifting to the northwest
                    3 to 10 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1500 knot-ft).
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................2 to 9.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........73     55     65     50     55     69
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........S CHC  CHANCE
CWR.............40     30     10     10     0      0
Temp............67     62     59     55     53     51
RH..............64     73     82     88     86     79
20 ft wind......SW 6   SW 6   W 6    NW 7   NW 8   NW 8
20 ft wind gust.10     11     10     13     14     14
Mix hgt (ft)....1500   900    700    800    600    1100
Mixing wind......S 3    SW 5   SW 3   W 2    NW 5   NW 9
LVORI...........3      3      5      6      5      4
ADI.............8      3      2      2      4      8
Haines index....3      3      3      3      4      4
VRate mph-ft/1K.6      4      2      2      3      10

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 63.
Min humidity........3028 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph
                    early in the morning.
Mixing height.......5900 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northwest 5 to 9 mph increasing to west 17 to
                    22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (101200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (111300
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................7 early in the morning increasing to 97 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........56     42     36     26     22     33
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............49     51     54     57     60     61
RH..............75     64     50     38     32     28
20 ft wind......NW 8   NW 8   NW 8   NW 9   W 9    W 10
20 ft wind gust.14     16     12     13     14     16
Mix hgt (ft)....1000   1200   2800   4100   5400   5700
Mixing wind......NW 9   NW 5   W 6    W 9    W 15   W 21
LVORI...........4      3      2      1      1      1
ADI.............8      7      18     45     64     89
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
VRate mph-ft/1K.9      6      15     38     82     116

$$
Forecaster...Perry
Requested by...Adam Christie
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410688.13/RNK
.DELDT 04/19/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Adam.christie@usda.gov