727
AGUS76 KRSA 101525
HMDRSA

Hydrometeorological Discussion
National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA
830 AM PDT Fri May 10 2024

...WARM TEMPERATURES INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...
...ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SRN SIERRA AND
EAST OVER NV IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS THROUGH TUESDAY...

.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (FRI AM - THU AM)...

Upper level ridge over the Eastern Pacific and into the Pac NW and
into Nrn CA as an upper low is centered around the Ca/NV border
today. Isolated showers/thunderstorms mainly over Srn Sierra and
over most of NV today with a stray shower or two possible over San
Gabriel and San Bernardino Mtns.  The low shifts to the east into
the four corners region on Saturday as high pressure builds in from
the Eastern Pacific.   Isolated showers possible mainly over Ern NV
on Saturday as the low moves off to the east. Ridge moves over the
region on Sunday as trough is along the west coast with a shortwave
headed towards B.C./Pac NW and a weaker disturbance around 130W and
36 N off the CA coast in the Eastern Pacific. Isolated
showers/thunderstorms possible over Central and Srn Sierra and near
the ORCA border on Sunday. Ridge of high pressure over Eastern
Pacific approaches the west coast as the weak disturbance moves into
Srn CA and the shortwave trough through the Pac NW Monday into early
Tuesday.  Isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly over the Central
and Srn Sierra and possible over NV on Monday. high pressure builds
into the region from the eastern Pacific as the weakening disturbance
moves into AZ and shortwave trough digs into the great Basin
Tuesday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible over the
Central and Srn Sierra and over NV on Tuesday. The majority of
solutions show ridge over majority of the region on Wednesday but
some show the shortwave trough may retrograde into NV/Srn Ca on
Wednesday. The forecast is dry for now but Srn Sierra and Srn NV
could see a shower if trough does move into region.  Models continue
to vary for late week into next weekend with how strong ridge will
be (EC has short wave troughs moving through PAC NW with stronger
trough along the west coast next Sunday) but may weaken some for
next weekend.

QPF amounts will be variable due to convective nature, but generally
a tenth of an inch or less with locally higher amounts (up to around
0.5 inches) possible should thunderstorms develop. Freezing levels
generally 10000 ft and higher into mid-week.

Max temperatures around 5 to 15 degrees above normal for Srn OR and
Nrn and Central CA and near normal to around 10 degrees below normal
for Srn Ca and SE CA and over NV this afternoon and warming to
around normal over Srn CA and SE CA and over NV Saturday afternoon.
Max temps generally above normal up to 15 degrees over most of the
region Sunday afternoon except near normal along the CA coast. Temps
similar on Monday except more cooling over the coast on Monday and
along the Central and Srn CA coast up to 10 degrees below normal on
Tuesday. Max temps rise to 5 to 20 degrees above normal on Wednesday
except near to around 10 degrees below normal for the Central and
Srn CA coast. Possible cooling for next weekend as trough may move
into region.  Overnight temps generally near normal to around 15
degrees above normal tonight into Wednesday night.


QPF graphics are available at www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/qpf.php



Osborne

$$