Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 230424
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
925 PM PDT Fri Mar 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of rain, mountain snow, and gusty westerly winds are
expected this weekend. Conditions will slowly dry for early next
week but periods of light precipitation are again possible Monday
into Tuesday. Wednesday will be dry and warmer, then a series of
troughs will bring a chance for showers Thursday, and again next
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

At 9 PM low clouds had spread into Orange and western San Diego
Counties. Cloud cover will steadily increase tonight and tomorrow
ahead of a trough of low pressure that will bring rain, wind and
mountain snow this weekend.

Areas of light rain will begin mid-day Saturday, then increase in
coverage and intensity through the afternoon as a strong cold front
moves from west to east across SoCal. The cold front passage will be
marked by rapid wind shift as breezy south winds ahead of the front
shift to the west and become gusty. These gusty west winds will
persist Saturday night and Sunday. A Wind Advisory is in effect for
coastal San Diego and Orange Counties from late Saturday afternoon
through Sunday afternoon, and for all the mountain and desert zones.

A shortwave in the northwest flow may bring light showers Monday
into Tuesday, mainly to the mountains. Wednesday will be dry with
transient ridging aloft. The pattern remains unsettled Thursday
through next weekend with another passing trough Thursday, and a
potentially stronger trough next weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A weakening cold front will move southward across the area on
Saturday bringing periods of precipitation. Latest high resolution
guidance indicates the front will move from Orange County south and
east into San Diego County from early Saturday afternoon into
Saturday evening. Periods of moderate rain are expected during that
time, with guidance indicating rain rates will be 0.25-0.35 inches
per hour. After the front passes, shower coverage will become more
scattered. Showers will be moderate to locally heavy at times as a
couple shortwaves move through Southern California Saturday night
into Sunday morning and again Sunday afternoon and evening. The
majority of the shower activity on Sunday is expected to be in San
Diego County and in the mountains. There is a slight chance of
thunderstorms for late Saturday night into Sunday evening. Showers
will taper off from northwest to southeast into Monday morning.

For Orange, southwestern San Bernardino, and western Riverside
Counties, rainfall is expected to range from one-quarter to one-
half inch for the coast and valleys to 1.5 to 2 inches in the
mountains. For San Diego County, rainfall is expected to range from
one-half to three-quarters of an inch near the coast, up to 1 inch
in the valleys, and 1.5 to 2.50 inches in the mountains.

A snow level of 6500 to 7000 feet for Saturday morning will fall to
around 4500 feet for early Sunday morning, then fluctuate between
4500 and 5000 feet for Sunday afternoon and evening. Total snow
accumulations of 2 to 6 inches from 5000 to 6000 feet, 6 to 12
inches from 6000 to 7000 feet, and 12 to 18 inches above 7000 feet.
A trace of snow possible down to 4500 feet.

&&

.AVIATION...
230300Z...Coasts/Valleys...Low clouds will increase in coverage and
spread inland to the coastal slopes by 11Z obscuring higher terrain
on the foothills of the mtn ranges. Bases will start at 900-1200
feet MSL and will rise through Saturday morning, with areas of bases
over 2000 feet MSL by 15Z. SHRA will move into the area 15Z-17Z,
lowering CIGs and VIS at times during showers.

Mountains: SCT to locally BKN clouds at/abv 20000 feet MSL with
unrestricted VIS through Saturday morning. Except coastal foothills
below 4000 feet MSL will be partially obscured by low clouds and fog
after 11Z Saturday. RA will move into the area 15Z-17Z, lowering
CIGs and VIS at times and obscuring more terrain.

Deserts: SCT to locally BKN clouds at/abv 20000 feet MSL with
unrestricted VIS through Saturday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Saturday
morning. Strong northwest winds will generate hazardous conditions
for Saturday afternoon through Monday. A Small Craft Advisory is in
effect for Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning and a Gale
Watch continues for Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. The
strongest winds, gusting 30-40 kts, and combined seas of 9-17 feet
are expected. Conditions will improve Monday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Large short-period swell from the west-northwest will arrive early
Sunday, peak Sunday night, and subside Monday. This storm swell will
likely produce breaking waves 4 to 7 feet, with sets up to 8-10 feet
Sunday night, highest in southern San Diego County. A Beach Hazards
Statement for Orange County and a High Surf Advisory has been issued
for San Diego County. Check the Coastal Hazard Message for hazard
details and timing.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory from 5 PM Saturday to 8 PM PDT Sunday for Orange
     County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

     High Surf Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to noon PDT Monday for San
     Diego County Coastal Areas.

     Wind Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Sunday for Apple
     and Lucerne Valleys-Coachella Valley-Riverside County
     Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Diego County
     Deserts-San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass Near
     Banning.

     Winter Storm Warning from 8 AM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Sunday for
     Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains.

     Winter Storm Warning from midnight Saturday night to 11 PM PDT
     Sunday for San Diego County Mountains.

     Beach Hazards Statement from Sunday morning through Monday
     morning for Orange County Coastal Areas.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 2 PM PDT Sunday for
     Coastal Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border
     and out to 30 nm-Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican
     Border Extending 30 to 60 nm out including San Clemente
     Island.

     Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for
     Coastal Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border
     and out to 30 nm-Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican
     Border Extending 30 to 60 nm out including San Clemente
     Island.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...Moede
HYDROLOGY...CO
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...PG


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