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000
FXUS64 KSHV 250618
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
118 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Quiet evening across the Four-State region as temperatures begin
to drop into the lower 70`s. A few light showers are present on
the KSHV radar along a boundary cutting through southern Arkansas,
but should not amount to much, and may not even be hitting the
ground due to how light the reflectivity returns truly are. Beyond
that, conditions remain tame. No major changes are needed with
this update as the afternoon package remains on track.

RK

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Upper-level ridging will begin to slide overhead tonight, with the
apex of the ridge centering itself by tomorrow. This will allow
for afternoon highs to skyrocket, with some locations reaching the
mid to upper-80s into Friday. This ridge will also temporarily
"shut off" rain chances for most of the region, with the best
chances for showers and thunderstorms being in our far north
zones, at the tip of the ridge. However, this ridge will not be
long lived, as upper-level troughing is ramping up in full force
to our west, setting the stage for a multi-day severe weather
event in the long-term.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

BLUF: Severe weather and heavy rain in the long-term. Much
weather, many words, long discussion. Wow.

By Friday morning, a potent low pressure will already be working
its way into the upper Midwest, with a cold front trailing down
into central Texas. This low and cold front will be the catalyst
for our first round of severe weather Friday afternoon,
particularly along the I-30 corridor. The environment overhead
will be incredibly primed, with peak instability values over 2000
J/Kg, and mid-level lapse rates over 7.0 C/Km. Any storms that are
able to sustain themselves and become more robust will be capable
of large hail and damaging winds. Forecast hodographs at face
value appear to be supportive of a tornado threat, but shear
values aren`t all there to truly support one. However, given the
hodograph curvature, a tornado threat can`t entirely be
discounted. The one "knock" against this event, if you will, is
that the best forcing is incredibly offset with the low pressure
way off to the north.

A similar setup will occur into the afternoon hours on Saturday in
the S. Plains, with a small section of our area highlighted in
another Slight Risk. This severe threat seems to be the least
"worrisome" of the three, as the low pressure will take off to the
NE like a rocket, leaving very little room for our region to see
significant impacts of the severe variety. Regardless, storms here
will also be capable of large hail and damaging winds.

The last of our severe chances looks to occur during the evening
and overnight hours on Sunday, when the trough finally gets a
solid kick in the pants and ejects east. Here, the environment
overhead will be rather similar to what`s overhead on Friday.
However, it looks like shear values from a tornado standpoint are
slightly better here, when compared to Friday. Again, the best
forcing looks to be slightly farther to the north, but that
doesn`t mean the whole event will be spoiled because of it. In
turn, all modes of severe weather will be possible, but damaging
winds and large hail should be the main threats.

The last thing worth mentioning here in this endless long-term
discussion will be forecast rainfall amounts into the middle of
next week. Given the extended periods of rainfall, widespread 3-5
inches of rain are possible down to the I-20 corridor. Given
heavier convection, higher amounts are certainly not out of the
question, particularly in our northern zones.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

For the 25/06Z TAF period, VFR conditions prevail for now except
for some patchy fog at KMLU which will likely persist through at
least daybreak. Additional sites may also experience some slight
vsby reductions, but the general trend will be for increasing
cloud cover at multiple levels throughout the TAF period. Despite
this, most sites should maintain low VFR conditions although some
brief periods of MVFR cigs cannot be ruled out from mid to late
morning as cu/stratocu increases from the W/NW along with mid and
high clouds as well. Light and variable winds overnight will trend
more southerly as a stalled boundary across our northern airspace
lifts back northward on Thursday. Wind speeds will increase into
the afternoon with 10-15 kts on average and higher gusts around
20 kts across our western terminals.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  85  71  87 /   0  30  30  20
MLU  65  85  69  86 /   0  10  10  20
DEQ  64  76  64  81 /  20  80  60  40
TXK  68  82  69  85 /  10  60  50  30
ELD  64  83  66  85 /   0  20  30  30
TYR  69  81  70  86 /   0  70  30  20
GGG  69  83  70  86 /   0  50  30  10
LFK  69  84  70  87 /   0  30  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...19