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000
FXUS64 KSJT 160517
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1217 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Late this afternoon, skies were mostly cloudy as mid-level
moisture was streaming into west Texas from the southwest.
Southerly surface flow was advecting a warm and humid airmass into
the region, characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. A
dryline was analyzed from Lubbock southward through the Permian
Basin and should mix eastward through early evening. CAPE values
of 2500 J/kg were prevalent in the warm sector. Strong to severe
storms should start developing by around 5pm along the dryline
during peak heating. The best dynamics to support isolated to
scattered storms with large hail will be across the Big Country,
especially north of I-20. However, chances for storms will exist
as far south as San Angelo this evening. Another round of storms
could occur overnight as a cold front will sweep through the area,
but this will be dependent on how much storm coverage occurs
during the evening. By tomorrow, a much drier airmass will move
into the area, ending any further chances for storms. Highs
tomorrow should be in the upper 80s to low 90s, although heat
index values should be lower due to the lower humidity.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Very warm to hot temperatures are expected Wednesday and Thursday
afternoons. Highs Wednesday will range from the upper 80s in the
Big Country, to lower to mid 90s for most of the area farther
south. On Thursday, a strong cold front will move south into the
Big Country in the mid-to-late afternoon. Timing of this front
will have an impact on temperatures. Ahead of the front,
compressional warming effects and considerable sunshine will
result in temperatures soaring well into the 90s. May make a run
at the 100 degree mark in parts of the Concho Valley. The cold
front will push south across the rest of the area Thursday night.
With the approach and arrival of the cold front and a possible
disturbance aloft, showers and thunderstorms will be possible late
Thursday afternoon and evening, mainly across the southeast half
of our area.

Temperatures Friday will be much cooler across the northern half
of our area, and to a lesser extent in our southern counties. A
reinforcing cold front is progged to move south across the area
Saturday night, with much cooler and well-below normal
temperatures following on Sunday. Our area can expect increased
cloud cover Friday through the weekend. A series of shortwave
troughs are progged to move east across the southern tier of the
CONUS, and will bring a low to medium chance (20 to 40 percent) of
showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and Friday night. The
arrival of the next cold front should focus showers and
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, and the
global models indicate that heavier rainfall will be possible. An
overunning setup will keep a chance for showers and a few elevated
thunderstorms into Sunday. Sunday looks to be the coolest day of
this forecast with temperatures confined to the 60s for highs area
wide. Rain chances should shut off by Monday, with a decrease in
cloud cover. The airmass will modify with a return to southerly
winds, although temperatures will remain below normal on Monday.
After morning lows in the mid to upper 40s, highs are expected to
be in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Low clouds with MVFR cigs have crept back west across the eastern
terminals early this morning, and may make a run as far west at
KSOA and KSJT before shifting back to the east after sunrise. Will
watch area radars to see if a few showers can get going near KBBD
towards sunrise as a cold front moves in from the west. Otherwise,
passage of the front will bring clear out the low clouds and
bring gusty west and northwest winds to the area for much of the
day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     58  91  64  93 /   0   0   0  20
San Angelo  58  93  64  96 /   0  10  10  10
Junction    63  97  67  97 /   0  10  10  20
Brownwood   59  90  64  92 /   0  10  10  30
Sweetwater  58  90  64  91 /   0   0   0  10
Ozona       60  91  67  94 /   0  10  10  10
Brady       63  91  66  93 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...07