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000
FXUS64 KSJT 191901
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
201 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

In the wake of yesterday and early last night`s cold frontal
passage, temperatures will be much cooler today with considerable
cloudiness and northeast winds. Numerical guidance differs with the
highs today by 10-14 degrees across much of our area. Leaning toward
the cooler side of guidance and going with highs in the lower to mid
60s across the Big Country, 65-70 in our central counties, and in
the lower to mid 70s for the southern part of our area.

An upper shortwave trough will approach the Desert Southwest today,
with some indication of an embedded wave ahead of it moving into the
Big Bend area this evening. The approach of this initial wave
will bring may bring a low chance of showers and thunderstorms to
the southwest part of our area (mainly the Northern Edwards Plateau)
late this afternoon and evening.

The primary shortwave trough will move east to the Arizona/New
Mexico border by daybreak Saturday, with the possibility of the
initial wave overspreading our area overnight. The bulk of our
area will have a low to medium chance (30-40 percent) of showers
and thunderstorms early tonight, but the main focus looks to be in
the northern third to half of our area overnight. With isentropic
lift and precipitable water values increasing to 1 to 1.5 inches,
some of the hi-res models indicate elevated convection developing
and quickly increasing in coverage over the northern third to
half of our area late tonight. The main thunderstorm threat will
be lightning, but small hail will also be possible with some of
the storms. Heavy rain will be possible and some areas may
receive over an inch of rainfall by 7 AM Saturday. Cloud cover
will be widespread tonight and overnight lows are expected to
range from the upper 40s to lower 50s in the Big Country, to the
lower 60s south of I-10 and in our far southeastern counties.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Precipitation will begin to decrease from west to east Saturday
night, as a the short wave trough moves east of the area.
Temperatures will be quite chilly Saturday night, with overnight
lows in the mid and upper 40s. Cool surface high will move in from
the north on Sunday. Skies will be mostly cloudy for a good
portion of the day, with some pockets of sunshine by late
afternoon. Temperatures will remain cool on Sunday, with highs
mainly in the lower 60s.

A warming trend will begin early next week, as southerly flow
returns and mid level ridging builds over the Plains. An upper
level storms system is forecast to move across the upper Midwest
and Great Lakes region early next week, with an associated weak
cold front possibly reaching the Big Country Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Could see some isolated convection mainly north if I-20
during this time frame and will keep low POPs intact for now.
Models show an upper level trough developing across the Desert
Southwest by mid to late week, with the dryline setting up across
West Texas. This pattern would be favorable for some thunderstorms
late next week, so will maintain low POPs during this time frame.
Highs on Monday will be in the 70s, warming into the 80s for the
rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

MVFR ceilings are occurring at all sites early this afternoon, but
expect a gradual lifting of ceilings into the VFR category in the
next hour or two. A return of MVFR and IFR ceilings is expected
early Saturday morning and should continue through the end of the
TAF period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible after
midnight, with a better chance for numerous showers and
thunderstorms late Saturday morning into the afternoon hours.
Northeast winds should generally remain below 12 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     52  58  44  61 /  90  90  70   0
San Angelo  56  63  45  63 /  70  90  50   0
Junction    59  72  48  66 /  40  90  60   0
Brownwood   56  61  45  61 /  70  90  90   0
Sweetwater  51  56  45  61 /  80 100  60  10
Ozona       58  66  47  63 /  60  90  40   0
Brady       58  64  47  61 /  50  90  80   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...Daniels