Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
317 FXUS64 KSJT 291110 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 610 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 A benign short-term forecast is on tap for the area as zonal flow in the upper levels moves overhead. Some scattered low clouds and patchy fog will be possible early this morning mainly across the Heartland and NW Hill Country with low level moisture return slowly working its way back into the area. However, this moisture is very shallow and should mix out by mid morning, leaving mostly sunny skies across the area for much of the day with light winds generally out of the southwest. High temperatures will climb above average into the mid 80s to low 90s. As a surface low takes shape well to our northwest in the Central Rockies, winds will back more to the southeast tonight with a minor tightening of the pressure gradient, leading to slightly increased wind speeds across much of the area. This shift to the southeast will allow for a more robust return of low level moisture into the area. The increase in low level moisture could potentially bring low clouds back for many locations south of the I-20 corridor by daybreak. With the potential for increased cloud cover and moisture, overnight lows will be on the mild side in the low to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Zonal to southwesterly flow aloft on Tuesday will become increasingly southwest by Wednesday afternoon, and into next weekend. Under this pattern, upper level shortwaves will pass over the area embedded in the upper level flow. This will allow for periodic afternoon and evening precipitation chances, mainly in the form of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. On Tuesday, weak shortwave energy will move through, so isolated development is expected along a tightening dryline just west of the area. While most of this activity should weaken shortly after sunset, there is a chance that some of these storms could make it as far east as our central counties. There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms for areas generally west of a Brownwood to Sonora line. Large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be the main potential hazards. Wednesday, southwesterly flow increases, and a more organized shortwave is progged to move over the area. With that in mind, PoPs are in the 20 to 40 percent range generally during the afternoon and evening timeframe. Once again, some of these storms may be capable of strengthening to severe levels, with large hail, and damaging wind gusts being the main concerns. The precipitation chances continue into Thursday as additional shortwave energy moves over the area, while a cold front is expected to move into and through the area Thursday night into Friday, providing a potential focus for convection. The forecast is less certain by next weekend as global models diverge in their solutions, but the pattern is expected to remain somewhat active, with the cold front moving back to the north as a warm front interacting with active southwest flow aloft. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 607 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 VFR conditions currently present across the area with light and variable winds. Low clouds and fog have started to move north and west into our area and may impact the KBBD and KJCT terminals in the coming hours. Have included TEMPO groups to account for the current patchy nature of the low clouds and fog. CIGs and visibilities should lift to VFR by 14-15Z and remain that way through most of the period. Winds will begin to back more to the southeast tonight and pick up slightly at some sites. Low clouds (MVFR to IFR CIGs) are expected to redevelop late overnight and early tomorrow morning, primarily impacting our southernmost terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 87 63 90 67 / 0 0 10 10 San Angelo 90 63 92 66 / 0 0 0 10 Junction 91 64 93 68 / 0 0 0 10 Brownwood 85 61 87 67 / 0 0 0 10 Sweetwater 87 64 91 66 / 0 0 20 20 Ozona 88 64 88 68 / 0 0 0 10 Brady 86 62 88 68 / 0 0 0 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...50