727
FXUS01 KWBC 050802
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
402 AM EDT Sun May 05 2024

Valid 12Z Sun May 05 2024 - 12Z Tue May 07 2024

...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Southern Plains on Sunday and a Slight Risk over the Northern
High Plains and Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley on
Monday...

...Heavy snow over the southern Cascades, Northern Rockies, and
Uinta Mountains on Sunday and Monday...

...There is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Central/Southern High Plains on Monday...

A front extending from the Northern Intermountain Region to
Southern California on Sunday will advance eastward to the
Northern/Middle Mississippi Valley and then to the Southern
Plains. At the same time, the associated surface low deepens
significantly by Tuesday.

The system will produce rain and higher-elevation snow over parts
of the Pacific Northwest, Northern Intermountain Region, and Great
Basin, with heavy snow developing over parts of the Southern
Cascades. Scattered rain and higher-elevation snow will also
develop over parts of California. Overnight Sunday, the snow will
expand into the Northern/Central Rockies as light rain develops
over the Northern High Plains.

On Monday, the snow will continue over parts of the Northern
Intermountain Region and Northern/Central Rockies, with heavy snow
developing over parts of the Northern Rockies and Uinta Mountains.

 Moreover, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will stream northward
over the Pains Sunday night into Monday and Tuesday. The moisture
will aid in creating showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain
over parts of eastern Montana. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Northern High Plains from Monday into Tuesday morning.  The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas the most vulnerable.

Furthermore, showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will
develop over parts of eastern Kansas/Nebraska and western
Iowa/Missouri as the front moves out of the Rockies onto the
Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Central Plains/Middle
Mississippi Valley from Monday into Tuesday morning.  The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas the most vulnerable.

More significantly, the system will produce showers and severe
thunderstorms as the boundary moves onto the Plains. Therefore,
the SPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern Plains from
Monday into Tuesday morning.  The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. There will be the added threat
of EF2 to EF5 tornadoes, severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65
knots or greater, and hail two inches or greater over the area.

Meanwhile, another front extending from the Great Lakes to the
Southern Plains will slowly move eastward off the Northeast Coast
on Sunday. At the same time, the western portion returns northward
as a warm front over the Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys by
Tuesday. Moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico will stream
northward over eastern Texas, producing showers and thunderstorms
with heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk
(level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over eastern Texas through
Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create numerous
areas of flash flooding. Furthermore, many streams may flood,
potentially affecting larger rivers.

In addition, some of the showers and thunderstorms will be severe.
 Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains through Monday
morning.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a
few tornadoes.  Also, showers and thunderstorms will extend from
the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley to the Southeast on Sunday. The
showers and thunderstorms will continue along and near the
boundary from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and southward
from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Southeast Monday into
Tuesday morning.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$