Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
340 FXUS66 KSTO 270856 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 156 AM PDT Sat Apr 27 2024 .Synopsis... Chances for light mountain precipitation today but otherwise, dry and mild weather with breezy winds expected through early next week. && Friday`s active weather has petered out yesterday evening with quiet conditions in store over the next several days. Latest 24-hour storm total reports show highest accumulations occurred over the northeast foothills and Sierra with Jarbo Gap and Blue Canyon reported just over an inch of liquid precipitation. The forecast transitions into a warmer and milder pattern as ridging slides over Northern CA today. This will be a progressive ridge sliding to our east with a weak shortwave moving over the Sierra behind it. This may result in some very light precipitation over the mountains today but will not result in any impactful accumulations if anything does develop. Looking to early next week, an upper-level low in the Pacific NW sliding eastward and an upper-level high in the Pacific will keep us in a dry pattern and see temperatures near normal to slightly above. However, this will bring some breezy wind gusts (15-25 MPH) Monday and Tuesday, strongest late each morning. Otherwise, this should be a mild next few days with lovely weather leading into May! Afternoon highs today will be in the mid 70s, warming to mid to upper 70s by Tuesday. && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)... Uncertainty persists in the extended forecast for the second half of next week as significant disagreement remains between ensemble members on what our upper level pattern will look like. Cluster analysis suggests around a 50/50 split among members of ridging vs a trough over the area. The deterministic NBM is favoring a dry and warmer pattern, however there`s still around 10 degrees or more of spread on potential high temperatures. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will predominate next 24 hours except areas of MVFR possible vicinity showers northern mountains and northern Sierra after 21Z as another weather system moves through. Surface wind gusts generally less than 12 kts. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$