232
FXUS62 KTAE 292304
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
704 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Scattered showers this evening lifting northward mainly over
portions of Southeast AL and the FL Panhandle have prompted PoPs
up to 25%. Do not expect any thunder with these as instability
and lift are limited. Tonight, some patchy fog is possible over
the aforementioned areas and possibly into the FL Big Bend,
but confidence is not high in development. On Tuesday, a decent
shortwave aloft and surface trough reflection swings through
the region. While the best lift remains northwest, scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly northwest of the
FL Big Bend, where they could consolidate into a line. The
main threat is gusty winds with stronger storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

An H5 will be moving over the region in the wake of Tuesday`s
shortwave. This will help to dry things out and warm things up as
temperatures return to the upper 80s to lower 90s for highs and
overnight lows remain in the lower to middle 60s. A weak sea breeze
is forecast to move inland Wednesday afternoon; however, drier air
loft will preclude any showers or thunderstorms from developing.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Dry and warm to very warm temperatures are expected to end the work
week and into the weekend with widespread lower 90s forecast
Thursday onward. This is thanks to an H5 ridge moseying through the
Southeast. An H5 shortwave will translate east into the southeast
later Friday into Saturday and will give us our next chance for
rain, mainly along the sea breeze. Some weak troughiness and another
weak vort max rolling through the Southeast later in the weekend
will keep a small chance for rain along the sea breeze again on
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 704 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Southerly winds will lessen during the overnight hours, then pick
up to about 10 kts during the afternoon. Light patchy fog/mist
possibly may develop during the early morning hours for ECP and
DHN terminals, and should clear by sunrise. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon hours
affecting all terminals. Winds may be gusty during the heavier
storms. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period
however, MVFR cigs and/or vsbys may be possible during showers and
thunderstorms. The convective activity should clear out of the
region around 00Z Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

The pressure gradient will continue to relax as high pressure
settles over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Another, weaker, surge
of easterly winds is expected tonight and may lead to a brief period
of cautionary conditions. Otherwise, light winds are forecast the
rest of the week with seas generally less than 2 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Showers are expected on Tuesday mainly northwest of the FL Big Bend,
with a return to dry weather on Wednesday and Thursday. The main
fire weather concern will be high dispersions on Tuesday in portions
of the FL and GA Counties, which may return on Thursday as well.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

The flood wave continues to inch down the Suwannee River with Flood
Warnings continuing at Branford, Rock Bluff near Bell, and Manatee
Springs. The good news is the warning at Branford could be cancelled
as early as this evening with Rock Bluff and Manatee Springs taking
a few more days to fall below Minor Flood Stage.

While a few showers and storms are possible Tuesday and again
Saturday, no additional riverine flooding is anticipated.

There is a very small chance, less than 5%, of one or two locations
picking up more than 3" of rain with the storms on Tuesday. This
could lead to some localized flooding if those rain totals are
realized.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   62  85  66  89 /   0  50  10  10
Panama City   67  80  67  85 /  10  40   0  10
Dothan        64  82  64  87 /  10  60   0  10
Albany        63  84  64  87 /   0  60  10  10
Valdosta      63  87  65  87 /   0  40  20  10
Cross City    62  85  64  86 /   0  10   0  10
Apalachicola  68  78  70  79 /   0  20   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ Tuesday for
     FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Reese