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000
FXUS62 KTAE 112354
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
754 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 218 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Gusty winds will continue through the afternoon as the upper trough
axis approaches and then passes the area this evening. Can`t
completely rule out a showers or two across the northern counties
this afternoon, but coverage and intensity will be limited.
Conditions will continue to improve overnight as the trough exits
and high pressure begins to build in.

Cooler and drier air will filter in overnight, with lows reaching
the lower to mid 50s. Highs tomorrow will reach the mid 70s under
mostly clear skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 218 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

A high pressure system is moving into our region from the west,
leading to a warm and dry weekend. There is no rain forecasted to
move into any of our counties, which will be a nice break from the
storm that occurred earlier this week. Skies should remain clear and
winds should remain calm and westerly throughout the period.
Saturday night minimums should range from the upper 40s in GA, AL,
and FL panhandle regions, with the FL Coast reaching up to the lower
50s. Maximum temperatures on Saturday will be in the upper 70s, with
low humidities throughout the day. Saturday night, low temperatures
will warm up compared to those on Friday evening, ranging in the
lower-to-mid 50s across our forecasting area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 218 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Surface high pressure will slide off the east coast while
maintaining ridging across the peninsula into the northern Gulf
through Wednesday. For the most part, winds will be light and
mostly from the southeast. Mid level ridging builds to our west
early next week after a mid level trough travels through the
Carolinas. Moisture is lacking to generate much cloudiness as the
trough swings through with precipitation well to the north. The
mid level ridge translates east into Wednesday as an upper low
moves into the Great Lakes and a cold front reaches the Tennessee
Valley. An increase in cloudiness Wednesday may be all that comes
from this system which will temper highs by a few degrees.
Speaking of temperatures, highs will mainly be in the 80s each
day, possibly upper 80s Tuesday ahead of the clouds Wednesday with
highs in the low/mid 80s Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 738 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Cloud cover is expected to begin moving out of the region,
clearing out from west to east throughout the overnight hours.
Predominantly VFR conditions are expected, but as this last bit of
cloud cover moves through, some MVFR cigs could be possible at
ABY/TLH/VLD. Otherwise, SKC is expected tomorrow as gusty winds
pick up after sunrise. Gusts up to 25 kts possible at ABY/DHN with
20 kts or less possible at ECP/TLH/VLD.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 218 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Strong west to northwest winds will continue tonight as low
pressure moves east and away from the area. Surface high pressure
will approach from the west on Saturday, then pass across the
waters on Saturday night. High pressure will move east of Florida
on Sunday, though a ridge axis will extend back toward northeast
Florida. This will bring a turn to gentle and moderate southeast
breezes on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 218 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

A drier airmass will push into the region overnight and into Friday
behind todays cold front. However, winds will be much weaker on
Friday, with sustained values remaining below 15 mph. Minimum
humidity values will likely drop into the upper 20s to lower 30.
However, with the substantial rainfall, Red Flag conditions are not
expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 218 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Considerable to catastrophic flash flooding occurred
across portions of the Florida Big Bend and into South Central
Georgia overnight and into this morning. Numerous water rescues were
reported with several structures around Tallahassee noted as
affected. While waters from flash flooding are gradually receding in
most areas, mainstem and smaller rivers/creeks are rising and some
quickly. As a result, a period of minor to moderate riverine
flooding is expected to continue through the weekend. The axis of
heaviest rainfall was generally aligned from near Lake Seminole
eastward along the FL/GA line to the eastern portion of our area,
though some extremely heavy amounts of 8-10 inches were reported
near Tallahassee and northeastward through Valdosta, some of this
rain occurring in a 3-5 hour period.

This rainfall distribution will affect the Apalachicola,
Ochlockonee, Withlacoochee, Suwannee, and Aucilla Rivers the most.
In fact, given that the entire Aucilla River basin received rainfall
in the 7-9 inch range, it is possible that high end moderate
flooding occurs, and could approach a long standing record at
Lamont.

For the Apalachicola, local inflows into Lake Seminole will lead to
increased releases with Blountstown getting into minor flood
overnight.

Along the Ochlockonee River, steady rises are continuing throughout
the basin, and as local runoff diminishes in the next 12-18 hours,
routed flows progressing downstream will lead to mostly minor
flooding, though moderate flooding is expected at Concord, affecting
CR-12 in Leon County.

For the Withlacoochee River, rises continue steadily at Valdosta and
local runoff is resulting in rises are all the way through Pinetta.
Minor flooding is expected throughout this basin, though it is
possible that Pinetta could reach the moderate flood level early
next week.

For the Suwannee, this will take a considerable amount of time for
water to process through the system, and there is always the
possibility of water loss downward into the Floridan Aquifer.
However, with the Withlacoochee, Alapaha and Upper Suwannee
components all getting hit with heavy rainfall, it would not be
surprising to see minor riverine flooding at most forecast points on
the mainstem Suwannee from Ellaville southward through Wilcox in the
coming days. Moderate flooding is not expected.

With no additional rainfall anticipated for the next several days,
this event will turn into monitoring routed flows through the river
system into next week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   54  75  51  79 /  10   0   0   0
Panama City   57  75  54  78 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        50  72  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        52  72  48  76 /  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      54  74  50  77 /  20   0   0   0
Cross City    54  75  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  59  72  55  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

     High Surf Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for FLZ108.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ Friday for FLZ112-
     114.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ115.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ118-127-
     128-134.

GA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ120>131-142>148-
     155>161.

AL...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Friday for GMZ730-
     750-752-755-765-770-772-775.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Worster
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Camp
HYDROLOGY...Godsey