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000
FXUS62 KTBW 171825
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
225 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

The dry and stable weather pattern continues as mid level ridging
in the Gulf of Mexico and surface high pressure in the Atlantic
continues to remain in place. By late week, there will be some
flattening of the ridge as a large upper level low drifts across
northern Ontario and our flow aloft will transition from
northwesterly to more of a westerly (zonal) orientation for the
upcoming weekend. Meanwhile, this upper level low in Canada and
the associated low pressure system will drive a cold front across
the Eastern Seaboard by the weekend and as this occurs, the
Atlantic high pressure will shift further offshore with the
surface ridge axis setting up to the south of the area. With a
gradual uptick in deeper moisture and a mostly WSW flow in place
for the weekend, there may be a few light showers that develop in
our interior areas as the sea breeze collision occurs over the
eastern side of the peninsula. This also seems to be supported by
recent guidance showing some potential for light pockets of QPF
over the weekend associated with some of this sea breeze activity
but for now will hold off on adding any PoPs to the official
forecast as confidence still remains low.

By late weekend, a southern stream shortwave trough will swing
across the lower Mississippi Valley and this will support the
development of a surface low around the northern Gulf Coast. This
surface low will quickly shift off to the northeast as it moves
offshore of the Carolinas and rain chances will increase area-wide
as the aforementioned cold front slides southward across the
peninsula on Monday. Models then show the frontal boundary sliding
south of the area by Monday night with drier air then building
into the area as high pressure builds in from the north. While
there will also be some slightly cooler air in the wake of the
frontal boundary, particularly for the northern half of the area,
temperatures are generally expected to remain normal through the
end of the extended forecast period as any cold air advection
behind the front looks limited at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 111 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Onshore winds will develop at coastal sites by late afternoon as
the sea breeze pushes inland, but winds will become variable
tonight and fall to 5 kts or less. SE winds will then be in place
Thursday morning before the sea breeze allows winds to shift
onshore again by Thursday afternoon with winds around 5-10 kts
through the day. Otherwise, high pressure in place will maintain
VFR conditions throughout the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

High pressure in the Atlantic will remain in place through the end
of the week, providing warm and dry conditions across the coastal
waters and favorable marine conditions. Winds shift to the west-southwest
by the weekend as a cold front ahead of a cold front that is
expected to arrive by Monday and bring the next chance of rain
across the area, but no headlines are expected at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Minimum RH values will continue to drop below critical levels
through the remainder of the week in inland areas as a dry air
mass remains in place, though wind speeds will be light enough to
preclude any red flag concerns. Humidity values will finally start
to recover by the weekend as winds become southwesterly ahead of
a cold front that is expected to arrive by next Monday, which will
bring the next chance of rain across the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  67  86  68  86 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  66  87  67  87 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  65  89  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  65  86  66  86 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  60  88  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  70  85  71  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Anderson
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Anderson