031
FXUS63 KTOP 061911
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
211 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread severe storms still on track to impact the entire
 forecast area late this afternoon through early evening. All
 hazards, especially widespread damaging wind gusts are
 expected.

- Quiet and mild conditions return Tuesday onward, providing a
  much needed break in severe weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

No major changes made to the forecast as a very dynamic upper
trough axis is observed rotating through the western high
plains, progged to eject eastward by late afternoon into the
evening hours. Foci for initation lies along a north to south
oriented dryline boundary with a trailing cold front towards
far western Kansas. Increasing low level moisture ahead of the
boundary near a pseudo warm front is also of note as MLCAPE
values are quickly increasing above 2000 J/KG southwest of ICT.
In addition to the line or broken segment of storms progged to
enter the CWA after 21Z, concern is growing for the possibility
of isolated discrete supercells forming over south central to
east central KS before moving northeast in the 22Z-02Z time
frame. Based on the impressive environment and strong low level
SRH ahead of the dryline, all hazards, including very large hail
(2 inch +) and a strong tornado or two would be likely with any
discrete cells. The more likely scenario and hazard for this
event will be the line of storms that strengthens east into the
early evening hours as the mid level jet max ejects east into
the plains. Short term CAMS have remained consistent in timing
and evolution of a QLCS cluster, including possible storm
mergers along the leading edge that could further increase the
potential for brief, tornadoes. Strong effective bulk shear from
0-3 km and steep mid level lapse rates lend to high confidence
in 70+ mph winds being sustained with the line of storms, in
addition to hail around ping pong ball size and the weak
tornadoes that may form along the leading edge.


Severe storms along with the cold front exit the region by 06Z this
evening, bringing calmer and drier weather to the CWA from Tuesday
onward. There may be a brief wave that passes through the westerly
flow aloft Tuesday evening across far northern and eastern areas,
bringing possible light rain to the area, otherwise rain chances are
minimal throughout the week as the northern and southern stream jets
bypass the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Scattered showers currently impacting KTOP/KFOE should exit by
18Z as southerly winds gradually increase from 15 to 20 kts
sustained by late afternoon. This should mix low MVFR cloud
bases up to near 2kft ahead of the front and line of TSRA that
will likely impact terminals west to east aft 23Z. Storms should
clear the area by 06Z as a drier airmass lifts cigs back to VFR
for the remainder of the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Prieto