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000
FXUS64 KTSA 200226
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
926 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 922 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A few light showers continue to drift eastward, generally near
the I-40 corridor, in general vicinity of 850mb frontal zone.
Increasing lift later tonight will result in expansion of showers
and isolated to scattered thunderstorms, with I-40 south remaining
the favored area. Only a few minor changes to the configuration
of POPs were made this evening, with the forecast remaining
generally on track.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to expand in coverage
across the far southern portion of the forecast area tomorrow with
lower confidence in northward advance of any light rain. Guidance
trends have consistently been southward with the precip footprint
as the mid level passes. Areas north of Interstate 40 are
trending drier and may well have no rainfall through the weekend.
Widespread cloud cover and influence from any rains will keep high
temps well below normal on Saturday.

Rains end Saturday night with light winds, dry and mild weather
on Sunday as sfc high pressure builds across the region. Winds
increase on Monday with a warming trend continuing into Tuesday
ahead of the next cold front. Currently the frontal passage
appears mostly dry, however shower and storm chances trend upward
in its wake as the flow aloft becomes more unsettled from mid to
late next week. It appears likely that severe weather potential
will increase by late next week as both instability and wind
profiles improve.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

VFR conditions should prevail through the period at the NE OK and
far NW AR terminals, with MLC and FSM expected to see a period of
MVFR conditions during the day tomorrow associated with expanding
showers. Light showers should develop late tonight/early Saturday
morning, with coverage increasing toward midday. Will cover the
early development with a VCSH, with prevailing SHRA during the day
with the increase in coverage. Thunder coverage as far north as
MLC/FSM is questionable enough that will mention only in a PROB30
for MLC. It may eventually need to be mentioned at FSM but that`s
not guaranteed. A low (10-30%) chance of shower impacts could
extend northward into the other terminals, a low enough chance to
preclude mention for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  65  44  66 /  10  30  20   0
FSM   52  63  47  68 /  50  50  30   0
MLC   50  59  46  66 /  70  70  50   0
BVO   41  64  41  66 /  10  20  10   0
FYV   45  66  41  65 /  20  30  20   0
BYV   45  64  42  63 /  10  20  20   0
MKO   49  64  46  64 /  40  40  20   0
MIO   42  62  40  63 /   0  20  10   0
F10   49  62  46  64 /  50  50  30   0
HHW   49  56  47  64 /  70  90  70   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...22