Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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842 FXUS64 KTSA 011920 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 220 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Generally weakening MCS continues to push eastward this afternoon across parts of southeast Oklahoma. Development of a wake low on the northern side of the MCS has led to some gusty winds on the periphery of the MCS, and will likely continue as it pushes eastward into Arkansas this afternoon. Storms have generally been on the weakening trend, but high moisture content will continue to pose a heavy rain threat with any of the stronger cells embedded in the system. As the MCS moves off to the east this afternoon, a relatively quiet afternoon/evening should be in store for most of the forecast area. A few scattered thunderstorms will be possible across far northeast Oklahoma through the afternoon and evening within a low level warm advection regime. Any storms could become marginally severe, with large hail the main concern, though mid level capping remains in place in the wake of widespread overnight convection across eastern Oklahoma, limiting the overall coverage of storms this afternoon. Otherwise a warm and humid afternoon is expected across the forecast area with the exception of where the MCS continues to churn. Attention will then turn to the overnight hours, with increasing shower and storm chances expected. Storms are expected to develop this afternoon across the eastern Texas Panhandle and into western Oklahoma. This activity will eventually grow upscale and move eastward into the overnight hours. Thus, another MCS is expected to impact eastern Oklahoma late tonight and early tomorrow morning. Trends in latest observations would tend to favor a more northeastward track to the MCS than what has been depicted in most model guidance throughout the day. The ongoing MCS across southeast Oklahoma will limit the amount of recovery in that area through the rest of the afternoon and thus leave a robust theta-e/instability gradient from northeast Oklahoma (where clearing has occurred) through southeast Oklahoma (which remains cloudy and cool). The developing MCS would likely favor more of a northeastward track along the instability gradient, bringing better storm chances into northeast Oklahoma for the late tonight time frame. The system will likely be in a weakening state as mid level capping increase toward sunrise tomorrow morning, but some strong winds could still be possible as the more organized MCS enters eastern Oklahoma. Bowlan && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Wednesday) Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Ongoing MCS across the area Thursday morning will shift eastward and weaken with time through the morning as it moves into northwest Arkansas. What happens Wednesday night/Thursday morning will play a role in the evolution of rain chances later in the day Thursday and overnight. A frontal boundary is forecast to move into the area during the day Thursday. If the atmosphere can recover in time in the wake of previous convection, a renewed round of showers and storms will be likely along the frontal boundary Thursday evening, with some severe potential depending on the airmass in place by that time. A relative lull in the action is expected on Friday, with some lingering showers/storms across southeast Oklahoma as the frontal boundary becomes stalled and washes out during the day Friday. Broad western CONUS troughing will continue into the weekend however, allowing for the active pattern to continue through the weekend. Shower and storm chances increase again on Saturday and Sunday as several shortwave speed maxes rotate through the larger scale trough and move out over the Plains. Uncertainty remains in the severe threat after several days of convection across the Plains modifying the airmass. But, with it being May, can`t rule out severe potential any day with storms around the area. The main upper trough is progged to become negatively tilted and eject out into the Central Plains on Monday which could bring the next chance for more widespread severe potential to the region, but will continue to be dependent on how much the atmosphere has been worked over by previous convection at that point. This trough should finally push a frontal boundary through the region and potentially allow for a brief quieter period for the middle part of next week. Bowlan && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Thunderstorm complex will continue to move across Southeast Oklahoma through mid afternoon with scattered mid and high clouds becoming common over the CWA behind the departing complex. Few to scattered mid/high clouds are expected into the overnight hours before increasing low and mid clouds late tonight and Thursday morning. Thunderstorm chances also increase during this time period from west to east and will continue with Prob30 groups for timing. Within these storm chances....MVFR conditions become possible and could linger to the end of the TAF period. Winds through the period are forecast to remain generally out of the south to southeast...with the exception of KFSM where more easterly winds return tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 66 78 60 80 / 30 70 60 20 FSM 66 77 64 82 / 20 80 60 40 MLC 66 78 62 82 / 50 80 60 30 BVO 63 77 56 79 / 40 70 50 10 FYV 64 77 59 81 / 10 70 60 30 BYV 65 78 61 79 / 0 60 60 20 MKO 66 76 61 80 / 30 70 60 20 MIO 66 76 59 79 / 20 70 70 10 F10 65 78 61 79 / 40 80 60 20 HHW 65 76 64 79 / 60 90 60 40 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...20