Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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507
FXUS63 KUNR 132233
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
333 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 332 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
SK...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN SD. COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO NORTHEAST WY. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RELATIVELY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MT AND NORTHERN WY...WITH STRONG JET
WRAPPING AROUND IT FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH SD. LATEST
OBS SHOW TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 IN THE LEMMON AREA TO NEAR
60 IN FAR SOUTHWEST SD. THE FREEZING LINE RIGHT NOW EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHERN HARDING COUNTY TO NEAR FAITH AND THEN SOUTH INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SD.

KUDX RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY INTO NORTHWEST
SD...WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALSO NOTED WITH THE ACTIVITY. PCPN
OVER FAR NORTHWEST SD INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD IS LIKELY FALLING IN THE
FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW. STRONG WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST WY...WITH
SHOWERS HELPING TO DRAG STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. SOME
GUSTS TO NEAR 70 MPH HAVE BEEN RECORDED OVER CAMPBELL CO. THESE
WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE BLACK HILLS AREA BY EARLY EVENING...WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO OVER 60 MPH LIKELY IN SOME AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING.
WINDS WITH THE FRONT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS INTO COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO THE EAST.

PCPN WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE CWA AS
WARM FRONT MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHEAST WY AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE
SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA INTO CENTRAL
SD...SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. PCPN WILL MOVE OUT OF FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN
AREAS IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 332 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES FOR FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN. STRONG JET STREAK DIVES
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS MONDAY/TUESDAY AND MAY RESULT SOME -SHRA/-SHSN.
BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. DRY
WEATHER WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS RIDGE
SHIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS. COULD SEE SOME HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ON
DOWNSLOPE AREAS ON EAST SIDE OF BLACK HILLS. STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVES ALONG CANADIAN BORDER FRIDAY WITH COLD FRONT CROSSING
FORECAST AREA. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WITH FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 332 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

MVFR/IFR CIGS OVER NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AREA OF SN/FZRA
DEVELOPS. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. FOR NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LCL MVFR
CIGS/VSBY. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-
     002-014.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ012-024>031-
     072>074.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ054>058-
     071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7



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