Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 042043
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
243 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...MOVING
SLOWLY EAST ONTO THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS. SKIES ARE MAINLY
SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S. SOME BUILDING CUMULUS
HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE BLACK HILLS...BUT NO RADAR RETURNS AS OF
NOW. WINDS ARE MOSTLY ON THE LIGHTER SIDE FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST IN MOST AREAS.

OTHER THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE BLACK HILLS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA...BECOME BREEZY AT
TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATER IN
THE DAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL CONUS ON FRIDAY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
AS A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
ANOTHER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SRN CANADA. MODELS AGREE ON A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER NERN WY AND SWRN SD FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA. MUCAPE OF ONLY
500-1000J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS LESS THAN 25KT SUGGEST
ONLY PULSE SEVERE STORMS AT BEST. SLOW STORM MOTIONS MAY RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER NERN WY AND FAR SWRN SD.

THE SWRN CONUS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS AREA BY
SUNDAY AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. MODELS DISAGREE CONSIDERABLY AFTER 12Z MONDAY AS THE
ECMWF PARTIALLY ABSORBS THIS UPPER LOW INTO ANOTHER UPPER LOW COMING
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHEREAS THE GFS EJECTS THE UPPER LOW EAST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW. THE RESULT IS A BROAD-BRUSH OF POPS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE PATTERN IS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY
BUT THEN THEY WILL FALL BACK TO AROUND AVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...BUNKERS
AVIATION...BUNKERS



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