Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 022321
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
521 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
INTO OUR CWA FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. CLEAR SKIES FROM THIS
MORNING HAVE ALLOWED THE SURFACE TO HEAT UP AND ERODE THE SMALL
CAP THAT WAS IN PLACE...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IN SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
WHERE THE STRONGEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALIGN. AFTER THE SUN
SETS THIS EVENING...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIE DOWN.

THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BLACK HILLS DURING
THE AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. BY FRIDAY
EVENING...ANY THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER DOWN.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
BLACK HILLS AREA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS IF THEY DEVELOP. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT COULD FUEL MORE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL SD. STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO ROTATE AROUND A CANADIAN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT...BRINGING
MORE WIDESPREAD AND BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE STORMS CERTAINLY LOOK POSSIBLE ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM.

FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL...WHICH WOULD
BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL
KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AROUND MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 518 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING ACROSS
SCENTRAL SD. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS. SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH VIS RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO AROUND 6 MILES AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE...SCT-ISOLD SHRA/TS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE
BLACK HILLS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC


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