Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 022313
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
513 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS...WITH UPPER TROF WORKING INTO THE PAC
NW. AT THE SFC...WEAK TROF LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE BLKHLS. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES OVERHEAD WITH WARM TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S EARLY
THIS AFTN.

SHARP UPPER TROF WORKS ACRS SRN SASK/MT ON WED AND SRN MANITOBA/ND
WED NIGHT. THERMAL RIDGE NOSES INTO THE CWFA AHEAD OF THIS TROF
RESULTING IN VERY WARM TEMPS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH/EAST OF THE BLKHLS
WHERE TEMPS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 90S. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH STRONG CAP IN PLACE.

ROBUST CDFNT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE CWFA WED NIGHT. 6+MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISES AND 40-50KT 850MB WINDS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WIND HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME
NECESSARY. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND WEAK
THETA-E ADVECTION ON THE PLAINS OF WRN/CNTRL SD OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...BUT GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS ND/SRN CANADA THURSDAY...
WITH THE BEST FORCING REMAINING N/NE OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW AVERAGE THURSDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY. COULD SEE LOWS FALL INTO THE 30S IN A FEW AREAS FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP
ACROSS THE REGION. WARMER AIR WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING.

AS A BROAD UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. COULD
SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RETURNING BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL COOLDOWN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MOSTLY
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 511 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A LLJ WILL DEVELOP
OVER SCENTRAL SD IN RESPONSE TO AN ADVECTING NW CONUS UPPER
TROUGH. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS THERE TONIGHT THROUGH WED
MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC





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