Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 160436
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1036 PM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...
700 PM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

- Dry weather expected through Wednesday with windy periods and
  elevated fire weather conditions

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

The surface high is located to the south of the forecast area this
afternoon and a low pressure system is moving from northern
Manitoba toward the Great Lakes. The pressure gradient between
those features if producing dry westerly downslope winds over the
forecast area. A surface trough rotating around the low pressure
system is currently dropping southward from ND, tightening the
gradient and increasing wind gusts to 30-35kts over northwestern
SD.

While the minimum relative humidity may not be quite as low as
previously expected, will keep the Red Flag Warning in effect for
northwestern South Dakota due to the dry air and increasingly
gusty winds. The wind will decrease some this evening, however
northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph are possible through much of the
night on the western SD plains with 10 to 20 mph winds over
northeastern Wyoming. Saturday morning low temperatures will
generally range from the mid 20s to mid 30s.

For the period from Saturday through Wednesday, dry northwesterly
flow aloft will continue over the northern plains as the forecast
area remains on the eastern edge of a stationary upper ridge over
the PAC NW. A series of weak fronts backing into the forecast
area will act to tighten the pressure gradient, leading to
periods of windy conditions. Saturday high temps will be a bit
cooler than today, though still warmer than average, with
noticeably cooler temps on Sunday, especially toward central SD.
Monday through Wednesday will then return to warmer than average
conditions.

The second half of next week appears to be colder and more active
with chances for rain and snow, although moisture appears to be
limited.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued At 1033 PM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Breezy
northwest winds will develop Saturday morning across the western
South Dakota plains and continue through the afternoon.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...10
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...13


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