Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 070908
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
208 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTHERN PLAINS REGION IS UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
INITIAL UPPER WAVE NOW PUSHING INTO MN...AND NEXT WAVE OVER MT/ND.
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MN IS CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SOME BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KTS.
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY...AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S.

NEXT UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING THE
NEXT AND MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF VERY STRONG WINDS. COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...WITH BEST PRESSURE RISES AND
ISALLOBARIC WINDS AROUND MIDDAY...RESULTING IN WINDS OF 40-50 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 65-75 MPH. CONSIDERED THE POSSIBILITY OF EXPANDING
WARNINGS TO THE REST OF NORTHEASTERN WY...AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL OF 50KT+ WINDS MIXING DOWN. HOWEVER NAM/GFS/ECM IN
AGREEMENT THAT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AS THEY ARE OVER THE DAKOTAS...AND
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW JUST 25-30KT WINDS FOR THAT AREA. WILL
LEAVE HEADLINES AS THEY ARE...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG
GUSTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING...STILL REMAINING
BREEZY OVERNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SD THIS AFTERNOON AS WAVE CROSSES THE AREA. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MONDAY...WITH
CONTINUED FAST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. SOMEWHAT TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS BREEZY ON MONDAY. UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE WRN CONUS. BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO
OUR ERN HALF OF ZONES TUESDAY AS UPPER WAVE DROPS SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. COULD BE SOME -SN WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS. WARMER AIR WILL
THEN PUSH BACK INTO THE ENTIRE CWFA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANOTHER BACKDOOR CDFNT TO
SLIDE INTO OUR ERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER SMALL
OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT PCPN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WX TYPE SNOW BUT
THERMAL PROFILES DO SHOW SOME CHANCE FOR FREEZING PCPN SO WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS. WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS PRIMARILY IN THE NRN BLKHLS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THIS MRNG. THE BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE THE STRONG NW
WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH 50-60KT GUSTS
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER NWRN SD. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012>014-024>026-028>032-043-044-046-047-049-
     072>074.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ027-041-042.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ057-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON


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