Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 242302
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
502 PM MDT WED AUG 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 235 PM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Upper level analysis has closed low over southern Manitoba with
broad troffing over the Northern Plains. Skies are partly to
mostly cloudy with a few lingering sprinkles across far south
central SD. At the surface, high pressure resides across the
Northern Plains with breezy northwest winds across northwest SD.
Temperatures at 3pm are in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

Tonight...Canadian upper low slowly shifts east as surface high
pressure settles into the Northern Plains. Weak shortwave energy
in west-southwest flow may keep some isolated showers and storms
moving through Northeast Wyoming and far western SD. Low
temperatures will fall into the 40s and lower 50s.

Thursday...Upper low/trof will diminish into westerly flow as it
shifts eastward out of the region. Chances for precipitation will
increase from west to east beginning early Thursday as another
shortwave approaches the area. Temperatures will be cool again -
ranging from the 60s across northeastern WY and the Black Hills to
the mid 70s across south central SD - and so instability will be
minimal. Much of the precip is expected to be showers as it
spreads across the CWA Thursday night, although there will be a
slight chance of thunderstorms. QPF through Thursday night will be
minimal, as profiles do not moisten much until after midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 PM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016

The upper trough extending through the Rockies will push through
the plains Friday into Saturday. Southeasterly surface winds ahead
of the trough will pull moisture into the region. This will result
in increasing pops and a modest shot of QPF for some areas,
especially to the east of the Black Hills. There could be isolated
strong to marginally severe storms from the Black Hills eastward
on Friday as well. Temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be
cooler than average, 60s and 70s.

Upper level ridging builds behind exiting trough for Sunday and at
least the first half of next week. This will allow much warmer
temperatures and mainly dry conditions to return.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued At 501 PM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Black Hills early
this evening. Chances for showers are expected to increase tonight
into Thursday morning across northeastern WY and portions of
western SD. Local MVFR conditions are possible near any of the
showers or thunderstorms, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10



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