Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 140715
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
115 AM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...
204 PM MDT Wed Mar 13 2024

-Lower potential snow accumulations this aftn/tonight due to
 farther southwest track of weaker low pressure system
-Splitting upper-trough brings windy and cooler weather tonight
 and Thursday
-Dry weather returns with breezy/windy spots over the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday)
Issued at 204 PM MDT Wed Mar 13 2024

20Z analysis shows an upper trough to the west of the forecast
area with a closed upper low dropping southward from Idaho into
Utah. The surface low is centered over southwestern Kansas.

Precipitation, mostly rain, has developed in the area of enhanced
lift to the east of the upper low, over northeastern Wyoming and
far western South Dakota. Some light rain is also moving northward
out of Nebraska and into southwestern and south central south
Dakota, but due to the relatively dry lower levels, much of what
is being seen on radar is not reaching the ground. Due to the
upper low track remaining farther to the southwest than previously
indicated, have again lowered the potential snow accumulation for
the rest of this afternoon and tonight, now with less than an
inch over the northern Black Hills and an inch or two in the
higher elevation areas of southwestern Campbell county. No snow
accumulation is anticipated over the rest of the area.

Breezy/windy conditions will develop tonight, and on Thursday, as
the surface pressure gradient tightens. Northeasterly winds
tonight may lead to gusty areas over the southern Black Hills and
also on the plains adjacent to, and southeast of, the Black Hills
into Thursday morning. During the day on Thursday, northerly wind
gusts approaching 40 mph are possible over parts of western South
Dakota, generally along, and to the south of, I-90.

Breezy conditions are possible over much of the region on Friday,
becoming windy over parts of northwestern South Dakota due to
pressure falls over eastern North Dakota. Temperatures will be
a little warmer on Friday, mainly in the 50s on the plains. A
cold front associated with an upper trough dropping from Manitoba
toward the Great Lakes will provide a glancing blow of cooler air
to at least the SD side of the forecast area this weekend. Temperatures
will rebound for the first half of next week as upper ridge
builds over the western CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued At 110 AM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Local MVFR/IFR ceilings currently across parts of the Black Hills
and northeastern Wyoming may improve some over the next few hours.
Widespread stratus across eastern Montana and North Dakota will
drop into northeastern Wyoming and much of western South Dakota
through 12Z. Within this stratus, some fog with IFR/LIFR
visibility is possible especially where the stratus intersects
the higher terrain around the Black Hills. The stratus will cover
most of the area through the day, with ceiling heights increasing
late this morning and afternoon.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...10
AVIATION...7


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