Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 252305
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
405 PM MST Fri Nov 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Saturday Night)
Issued at 139 PM MST Fri Nov 25 2016

Water vapor shows upper ridge building through the nrn Rockies
into the nrn plains. Near the sfc, southwest bl flow bringing
warmer air back into the region.

Even warmer temps expected on Saturday with thermal ridge passing
overhead, allowing temps to rise well into the 50s and even some
lower 60s south/east of the Blkhls.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Through Friday)
Issued at 139 PM MST Fri Nov 25 2016

Upper ridge shifts east of the region on Sunday as a large upper
trof moves across the western US. This trof will shift into the
plains Sunday night with a low progged to close off over the
Northern Plains by Monday morning. Medium range models all show
this, but still differ on track and movement of the low early next
week. The GFS and NAM are further north and faster than EC,
cutting off the low well north and east of the cwa, with little
pcpn coverage across our cwa except for the northern Black Hills.
The EC is slower and further south with the low, bringing mostly
wrap- around light snow on the back side of the system early next
week. The highest pops generally look to be across the northern
Black Hills and the plains east of the Black Hills. No matter how
the system tracks, winds look to be rather gusty across the region
early next week as pressure gradient remains tight to the west of
the low.

Improving conditions are expected by mid week, but even lower
confidence on track and evolution of weather features late week.
Models each have a different solution on how the upper low and main
northern stream trof evolve and shift east. For now, will go with
pops over mainly western portions of the cwa for late week. A cool
and relatively windy week on tap, with highs generally near or
slightly below average, mostly in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued At 404 PM MST Fri Nov 25 2016

VFR conditions will continue through the period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Johnson
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...10



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