Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 222053

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
253 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Saturday Night)
Issued at 234 PM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Current surface map shows low over southeast Montana with trof
into the Nebraska Panhandle. Weak shortwave crossing the forecast
area triggering scattered thunderstorms. MLCAPE ranges from around
1000J/kg across northeast Wyoming with 4000+J/kg across northwest
South Dakota. Sufficient shear for a few severe storms, especially
across northwest South Dakota. Bulk of thunderstorm activity will
move east of the forecast area overnight.

Cold front crosses northeast Wyoming and western South Dakota
late tonight...and through south central South Dakota around noon.
Highs 10-15F cooler for Saturday. BL-850mb winds support northwest
winds of 15-30 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

High pressure over the Dakotas for Sunday. With marginal
moisture...and isolated afternoon thunderstorm is possible over
the Black Hills.

Upper flow will be quasi-zonal Sunday through next Thursday, with
periodic shortwave troughs bringing a daily chance for
thunderstorms. Temperatures will be slightly above average.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Saturday)
Issued At 234 PM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this morning from northeast
WY into northwest SD. Potentially severe storms will develop this
afternoon with local LIFR conditions possible with any storms.
Outside of storms, VFR conditions are expected. Early Saturday
morning, a strong cold front will bring gusty northwest winds to
the area.


Issued at 234 PM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Critical fire weather conditions will continue into this evening
for northeast Wyoming. Cold front will cross the area
tonight...with gusty northwest winds for Saturday. Minimum
relative humidity will drop below 20 percent for northeast Wyoming
and much of western South Dakota.


.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for SDZ260>262-264.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening
     for SDZ014-032-043-044-046-047-049.

     Heat Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for SDZ001-002-012-013-

WY...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for WYZ259-297>299.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ259-297-298.



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