Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KUNR 271012
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
312 AM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD TROF
OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. AN EMBEDDED WEAKENING CIRCULATION
WITHIN THE TROF IS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST NEB INTO SOUTHEAST SD.
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
SKIES ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE MOST CLOUDS
OVER NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. TEMPS ARE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS.

COLD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR LATE IN THE WEEKEND BRINGING WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS AND
BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EARLY MORNING CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES THEN EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MILDER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST OR
SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...A BIT STRONGER AT TIMES OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST WY AND NORTHWEST SD THIS AFTERNOON. A GENERAL INCREASE
IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 5 TO 15 DEGREE
RANGE AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT IN MOST AREAS.

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FAR NORTHERN SD EARLY SUNDAY AND
SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL TURN
NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE DAY...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
REACHED DURING THE LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS...UPPER TEENS AND
20S. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS BY
EARLY MONDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER FAR NORTHEAST
WY AND NORTHWEST SD...THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL INTENSITY LOOKS TO
BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE FOR MOST AREAS...BUT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOWFALL AND EXPECTED SNOWFALL RATIOS AROUND 20:1 WOULD LIKELY
PRODUCE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF 2 TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHEAST WY THROUGH THE BLACK
HILLS AREA...AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD. LATEST 00Z MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW COULD FALL.
TEMPS WILL DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY MONDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS 1055MB HIGH SETTLES IN
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY/TUESDAY WILL BE IN
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...WITH WELL BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO -15 TO
-30F...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES
MID TO LATE WEEK...ALTHOUGH NEXT COLD FRONT MAY DROP INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON LATE FRIDAY BRINGING MORE COLD AIR AND A CHANCE
OF SNOW FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.