Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 251140
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
540 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

UNSETTLED WNW FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE PERIOD.
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF THE FA THIS MORNING
WITH LOW CLOUDS SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. LL BAROCLINIC
ZONE COUPLED WITH IMPULSE LADEN NW FLOW IS SUPPORTING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MT INTO WY...WITH THE EXTREME FAR WESTERN ZONES
SEEING SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDS ACROSS THE FA
THIS MORNING. LL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK EAST
TONIGHT...SUPPORTING A QUASI-WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK
IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE FRONT...SUPPORTING PRECIP
CHANCES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURS...WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING
EXPECTED THU MORNING ACROSS THE SD PLAINS AS A LIFTING UPPER JET
STREAKS SUPPORTS ENHANCED LIFT.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MOSTLY DRY CONDS EXPECTED IN THE FA WITH A DRY POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NE WY
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE PER
STEEP LL LAPSE RATES/DIURNAL HEATING/AND JUST ENOUGH LINGERING LL
MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS A STRONGER IMPULSE COUPLED WITH AN UPPER JET STREAK WILL
SUPPORT A FGEN BAND ACROSS NW SD. LIGHT SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH INITIAL ONSET MAY BE DELAYED GIVEN VERY DRY
SUBCLOUD CONDS AND HIGH CENTER FORCING. OPTED FOR HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELIES ACROSS FAR NW SD LAT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...COOL CONDS ON
TRACK FOR TODAY WITH GENERALLY 40S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR
LOWS.

THUR...LIFTING JET STEAK AND THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SNOW CHANCES THU MORNING ACROSS THE SD
PLAINS...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE FORCING OVER THE NORTHERN
BLACK HILLS. A NARROW BAND OF ACCUMS OF AROUND AN INCH OR TWO IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION ON THE SD PLAINS THUR MORNING...WITH A COUPLE
INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. DIURNAL HEATING WILL
PROMOTE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON...WITH MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY
EXPECTED...ESP JUST WEST OF THE MAIN FGEN BAND...NE WY/THE BH/AND
FAR WESTERN SD. HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN SD AND THE BLACK HILLS FOR THIS. RAIN/SNOW SHOWER
CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO THUR NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMS
THUR NIGHT. COOL CONDS WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY 40S EXPECTED FOR
HIGHS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S/30S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...MUCH WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA.

COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIKELY
PUSHES THROUGH SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 539 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

EXTENSIVE AREA OF MVFR/IFR CIGS HAS SETTLED OVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN SD PLAINS AND NORTHEAST WY EARLY THIS MORNING. KRAP IS
ON THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS...WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS INCREASE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
PERSIST ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SD
PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INCREASING ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST WY AND NORTHWEST SD. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS AFTER 06Z.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26






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