Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 192034

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
234 PM MDT Wed Oct 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 210 PM MDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Upper level analysis has broad trof across the Northern Rockies
and Northern Plains, with a shortwave currently moving through
western SD. Skies are cloudy across the forecast area with
scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms. At the surface,
weak high pressure resides across western ND with a cold front
extending from central MT into northeast WY and across southern
SD. Temperatures at 2pm range from the 40s across northeast WY to
the 60s in south central SD. Winds are out of the northwest at 5
to 15 mph across northeast WY, and light and variable across SD.

Tonight...Current shortwave continues to shift east and south this
evening as main upper trof moves east and ridge builds to the
west. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue across
western SD this evening, and persist across south central SD
after midnight. A few light snow showers will be possible across
the Black Hills this evening with no accumulation expected. Low
temperatures will fall into the upper 20s to upper 30s.

Thursday...Upper ridge over the western CONUS will begin moving
eastward over the region, with mild and dry weather returning.
Winds will become southwesterly ahead of a low-level trof, and
temperatures will be in the upper 50s. Although the day will begin
mostly sunny, clouds will increase in the afternoon/evening as a
weak upper wave pushes through the ridge. Ridge axis will cross
the area Thursday night, with cloud cover slowly diminishing
overnight. Low temperatures will fall into the 30s to around 40

.LONG TERM...(Friday Through Wednesday)
Issued at 210 PM MDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Broad upper ridge will remain over the Rockies and Plains through
early next week, with an upper trough remaining off the Pacific
coast. The result will be dry and mild conditions for the region.
Temperatures will be above average from Friday through at least
Tuesday. Southwest flow aloft returns to the region mid week as
the upper trof eventually moves into the western US. This may lead
to some increasing chances for pcpn, although no significant
storms are expected at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Thursday)
Issued At 210 PM MDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Isolated to scattered showers can be expected across much of the
area through this evening. Isolated thunderstorms are also
possible, especially from the Black Hills to southwest SD. MVFR
conditions can be expected with some of the precipitation.




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