Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 180911
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
211 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 208 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SURFACE LOW IS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MT...AND WINDS ACROSS THE CWA ARE LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY. LOW CLOUDS
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THE FOG AROUND THE HILLS SEEMS
TO BE RETREATING A BIT. WILL LEAVE AREAS OF FOG AROUND THE HILLS
THROUGH EARLY MORNING IN CASE IT FILLS IN. ALSO ADDED SOME PATCHY
FOG FOR THE SD PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS. TEMPS ARE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S.

FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD TODAY AS WESTERLY BL WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY...AND WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN TO THE SEASONABLE 30S...WITH SOME 40S ON
THE DOWNSLOPING EASTERN FOOTHILLS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS.

AN UPPER WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY.
MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK FAIRLY DRY...AND SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN
SOME CLOUDS FROM THE WAVE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 208 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN SIMILAR WITH THE LARGER
SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHOWING A
RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND A DOWNSTREAM TROF DIGGING
AND CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. INITIAL
DIGGING SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH SOME RAIN/SNOW
POSSIBLE. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOW TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
FOR THE BLACK HILLS...WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...SIGNIFICANT DIGGING TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT BASIN. ECMWF/GFS DIFFER SOME IN
STRENGTH/TRACK AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...BUT BOTH OFFER UP
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 208 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH GRADUAL DISSIPATION ALONG
WESTERN EDGE. FOG ADJACENT TO WEST/SOUTH SIDE OF BLACK HILLS WITH
LIFR VSBY WILL ALSO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. VFR FOR KGCC TERMINAL
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS. THE IFR CIGS AT KRAP MY
DISSIPATE PRIOR TO 14Z...WHICH WOULD ALLOW SOME FOG TO DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE. ANY FOG AT KRAP SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KRAP BY LATE MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7






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