Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 290836
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
236 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN
DAKOTAS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK SHORT WAVE
DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN DAKOTAS IS TAPPING INTO ELEVATED/UN-CAPPED
CAPE...WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST MONTANA
INTO THE BLACK HILLS. TIMING OF SHORTWAVE WOULD HAVE THUNDERSTORMS
EXITING SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE BLACK HILLS THIS
AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS ALSO HINTING AT SMALL THUNDERSTORM RISK
FOR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
SHORTWAVE...WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH LACK OF FORCING...WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW ISOLATED STORMS POPPED
UP DURING THE NIGHT. SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE
TO FLATTEN MIDWEEK AS SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WARM AND MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY BETWEEN WAVES...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN AMPLIFY AGAIN
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS RESULTING IN DRIER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY. GFS
AND ECM ARE NOW BOTH SHOWING A STRONG CANADIAN UPPER LOW FLATTENING
THE RIDGE AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

SCATTERED TSRA EARLY THIS MORNING MAY RESULT IN NEARBY
MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...BUT ISOLATED -TSRA MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON THE BLACK HILLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE


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