Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 022040
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
240 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTH CENTRAL SD...WITH TROF STRETCHING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD INTO WESTERN NEB. A COLD FRONT HANGS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
FROM NORTHEAST ND TO CENTRAL MT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES NOTED
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA RIGHT NOW...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID
70S OVER NORTHEAST WY TO NEAR 90 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA... ESPECIALLY TO THE
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS...WITH A SLOWLY WEAKENING CAP. VISIBLE
SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING BUILDING STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY AND MT...BEGINNING TO MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS.
OTHER STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS ND.

RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS IN PLACE FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
ENTIRE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST THREAT SHOULD
BE MOSTLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WITH A SECONDARY
THREAT FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE CWA NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SBCAPE VALUES LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING ARE
PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND
FAR NORTHWEST SD TO OVER 3000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE
BEST SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN SD...BUT IS ADEQUATE
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP. NEAR
TERM MODELS HAVE HINTED AT A COMPLEX OF STORMS ORGANIZING OVER
EAST CENTRAL WY/NORTHWEST NEB MID AFTERNOON AND TRACKING EAST-
NORTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...GENERALLY AFTER 400 PM. FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE/DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY EARLY EVENING AS STORMS MOVE OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN WY AND MT. A STORM OR TWO COULD GET
GOING BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA AS
WELL. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SOUTH CENTRAL SD AREA. ACTIVITY
SHOULD TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT...BUT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD LINGER IN MOST AREAS AS WEAK ENERGY PASSES
OVER. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
THE DAY. WILL KEEP LOWER CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LOOKING TO BE OVER THE BLACK
HILLS IN THE AFTERNOON. RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE RATHER
LOW...BUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPS WILL
BE MORE SEASONABLE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS...60S OVER THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
PCPN CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND...
WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING IN TO THE WESTERN CONUS. RESULT WILL BE
ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS....WITH EACH EMBEDDED WAVE
BRINGING A DECENT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

 SCT TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACRS NERN WY AND WRN SD LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE. LCL IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER PCPN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7


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