Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 302307
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
507 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

VIS/WV IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG STACKED LOW SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD
ACROSS NEBRASKA. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS EXTENSIVE WRAPAROUND
PRECIP AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF SD INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE AND
SE WY. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED MAINLY ACROSS THE
ERN BLKHLS INTO THE SURROUNDING FOOTHILLS. PRECIP ACROSS SW/SCNTRL
SD HAS STAYED AS RAIN....AS THE RAIN/SNOW LINE HAS NOW DRIFTED
SOUTHWARD INTO CNTRL NEB NEAR KLBF. LOW PRES WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO
ERN NEB TO THE IA/MO BORDER TONIGHT WITH PRECIP MOVING OUT OF THE
CWA BY LATE THIS EVNG OR THE OVNGHT HOURS. 1030MB SURFACE HIGH WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH WITH SKIES CLEAR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN
MRNG. A QUIET DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SKIES CONTINUING TO CLEAR
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. WINDS WILL
BE N/NE AT GENERALLY 10 KT. TEMPS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 30S SUN
NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

BOTH THE ECMWF/NAM SUGGEST A WAVE DROPPING SWD FROM CANADA ON
MONDAY ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR PCPN...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS DRY. WILL SIDE WITH THE DRY SOLUTION
FOR NOW WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. THE RIDGE
SHOULD PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE WEEK PROVIDING DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE DESERT SW LOW FOR
THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK...WITH UPPER ENERGY ROTATING NEWD INTO
THE NRN PLAINS BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 505 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

SCT MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE SE 1/4 WILL TREND VFR TONIGHT AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. VFR CONDS
EXPECTED ALL PLACES THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC


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