Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 281147
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
447 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 302 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BUILDING INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MONTANA/NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE
A BAND OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
WARM FRONT. BASED ON TEMPERATURES...THIS PRECIP IS MOST LIKELY -RA
AND -FZRA. OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO WARM AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. WITH MUCH WARMER AIR OVER THE
REGION...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY WARM INTO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 60.
SOME COLDER READINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN ZIEBACH AND EASTERN PERKINS
COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AS A TROF ENTERS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AN ARCTIC FRONT SLIDES SOUTH AND PUSHES INTO PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE COLD AIR REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE WITH THE INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

THE ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...
BRINGING A SURGE OF COLD AIR AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY SINCE IT WILL LARGELY DEPEND
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH TEMPS IN NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA MAY ONLY BE IN THE 30S WITH READINGS IN THE 60S
ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AS THE FRONT PUSHES QUICKLY THROUGH
THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WITH THE ARCTIC ORIGINS OF THIS BOUNDARY...MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED...THUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
ON SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD...AS
ARCTIC AIR SURGES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN
THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS ON SUNDAY...WITH WIND CHILLS NEAR OR BELOW
ZERO. THE BRUNT OF THE ARCTIC AIR STILL LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED
ACROSS THE AREA AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY. MAINLY DRY
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY FROM TUESDAY
ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 446 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
SD EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26






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